Why midterm polls always break just before election day

 

Why Election prospects are suddenly turning right. These explanations from Catharine Shaw (Dem, Oregon) and Karl Rove (Rep, Texas).  First, polling in the summer is merely “adults” or “registered voters”.  Adults could be felons and unregistered folks who never darken the doorstep of a polling place.  Registered voters are better, but include voters who rarely vote.  Electon boards however, have records of how many times a voter has voted.  Usually quoted among political pros is the last 4 general elections held ever two years.  A 4/4 means voted 4 times out of 4 possible elections, a 3/ 4 voted 3 times.  Likely voters are 4/4s or 3/4s.  But for less likely voters, they only count as a prorated amount due to how often they vote.  This “likely voters” poll is far better at prediction of an outcome but only starts popping up in October.

            Moreover, independents only vote half the time, so they often show up as unlikely and are prorated down in such likely voter polls.

            Then comes the enormous problem of how to normalize party distribution when your poll contains a lot more respondents of one party than the other.  Republicans notoriously won’t answer much.  This year it has gotten so bad that many pollsters have resorted to selecting a panel and going around asking preference.  The problem with this is the voter who holds his cards close to his chest—which Rs do and some independents. 

            Indies are an interesting bunch.  About 20% are “hidden partisans” who always vote R or D but disguise the fact because their friends or family disagree with them.  Calling yourself independent allows one the snobbery of being “discerning” or at least doesn’t get your dad mad. Only 20% of Indies actually weigh candidates until the last minute—the mistaken image the media paints of them.  60% of Independents frankly dislike both parties. The reason only two midterms had a party in power improve their majorities since WW II? It  is that the independents show up and vote their current hatred of that party in power. So they flip-flop against from one party to the other depending on if it is in power or not. Why do they dislike both parties.  Sometimes their deep personal issue is one neither party cares to address. “I want unlimited speed limits on highways!” Or they side with conservatives on fiscal but liberals on social issues (or vice versa).  This puts they always at odds with both major parties. Or they are reactionary. “Nobody cares about the socialist labor movement anymore but I do!”

            Result is that polls always break in favor of the party out of power in midterms in the last 3 weeks.  And  pros have certain fudge factors and multipliers worked out (and kept secret) for each state election.