What did Josh say!!!

 

JOSH HAWLEY GAVE A SPEECH AND THE LEFT WENT APE. There were incensed editorials from numerous lefty newspapers.  Good grief! What did Hawley say? “We are a revolutionary nation precisely because we are heirs of the revolution of the Bible.” This caused the Kansas City Star editorial board to scream, “No. Our constitutional government, and therefore our nation, isn’t based on the Bible, or any religious text.” Sheesh! Where did Hawley say “constitution”?  He was just voicing a platitude.  Hawley noted the Bible “gave us equality between men and women.”  This caused the Star to erupt over the Bible and the founders who definitely disliked inequality, loved slavery and were racist.  They continued to slam this “inaccurate history, dubious theology and extreme hypocrisy that should worry every Missourian who believes in the separation of church and state…theocracy…White Christian nationalism overtaking the Republican party, endangering religious freedom for everyone.” Hmm. It always makes me suspicious of an author when he has scant proof to offer and extends to to wild accusations.  That’s usually a writer who is dead wrong.

            To wit, the 1787 Constitution was a political compromise to re-write the Articles of Confederation which created a system that had resulted in discord between the member states and monetary problems.  Yet the Constitutional Convention wanted to preserve the Declaration of Independence in both sense of moral reason for the founding and in the actual union of 13 colonies into one federal system.  The Declaration claims that the people of this revolt were “All men are created equal and are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, among which are life liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” Who would have written this? Does an atheist believe in a Creator?  If said rights are ‘inalienable’ doesn’t that imply an active Creator?  What deist would write such a thing?  If all men are created equal, would a Hindu or Muslim assert such a thing? And it seems the Quran certainly doesn’t hold a right to life applies to pagans.  In short, these words fit only the Judeo-Christian beliefs. Indeed the quote, by Thomas Jefferson is almost exactly lifted from John Locke, the Christian and Government philosopher of Oxford University in Two Treatises on Government, 1675. In his day of divine right of kings, Locke was considered far out, but he took his ideas from Martin Luther’s Liberty of a Christian. The logic is simple. If a person has a god-given mission is life, no one has any business interrupting that lest they transgress God.  Therefore the Liberty is to let every person live the life they want to, unless it goes against the social contract (laws) of a nation. So when the Constitution calls for the “Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and to our children” that’s the same blessings gifted by the Creator of the Declaration. Oh, and by the way, 19 of 56 signers were clergymen. Only Thomas Paine and Ben Franklin were deists. Most of the deism movement came after we'd won our independence.

            And we have long been a nation of neither theocracy (where the priesthood rules) nor White Christian Nationalism. Tell me, do you know anyone who attended a White Christian Nationalism meeting in your neighborhood?  Moreover, such a social contract allowing Liberty to all seems acceptable to a good card-carrying atheist or agnostic as well. And those snarky comments about inequality not being a Christian tenant?  Then what do you make of the passage, written twice in both Gal. 3:28 and Col. 3:11 “For in Christ Jesus you are all sons of God, through faith…There is neither Jew nor Greek, there is neither slave nor free,. There is no male and female, for you are all one in Christ Jesus.” Um, I hope the leftist writers of the KC Star can understand that 2000 years ago when they referred to “all sons of God” they mean daughters too-- a common literary style--and that the reference to slaves and Greeks doesn’t change the position of such people but means spiritually, not physically. 

          Perhaps we can send the Gideons over to the Star with a complementary Bible so they can read it.

Oklahoma public school debate and proposal

 

Surely we still need public schools.  But golly, the results are disappointing.  Latest NAEP test scores show 8 points lost in 8^th grade math and other losses about 5 points nationwide.  10 points is a year’s schooling. Everybody is blaming this on COVID but the scores had improved through 2018 and have now fallen.  The decline started prior to COVID and continues. But the Dept of Defense schools on bases has not fallen.  My sister-in-law and niece, who teach on an army base, say they love teaching the kids there because of DISCIPLINE.  Any disturbance that sends a kid to the office alerts the commanding officer to call the parents.  That seems to be enough to get the student straight.  The other place where NAEP scores haven’t fallen is at some Catholic schools which do the NAEP tests.  They stayed open mostly during COVID.  The Lutheran school I am particularly acquainted with also saw no loss of test results—though they use another testing agency than NAEP. (7^th grade closed two weeks only during COVID) This school graduates 8^th graders with 11^th grade achievement scores every year.  One year all 22 students were labeled “college ready”.  The Lutheran Alumni students go on to public high school and are leaders throughout the high school.  Is this success due to cherry-picking the best students in the community?  No at allt. The student population has more minority students that the general population and scholarships help many of the kids attend.  This year there are 10 Dept.of Human Services custody foster children, and most are doing swell.  Likewise the Army base where my niece teaches has 47% Afro-American kids and scores better than the public schools in the city next door to the base.

            So my question is, “Do we need all that money and politics inserted into public schools?” Catholic and Lutheran schools educate elementary and middle school kids for less than half that of public schools. When I look at what these schools and charter schools do, they are much like the 1950s schools I attended when USA had schools far better than the rest of the world. Today we rank 28^th in science and 20^th in reading. We had one principal, small athletic facilities, parents very supportive, teachers that pulled you aside and assigned extra work if you excelled in some area, no-nonsense discipline environments where kids could learn as much as they could, and they taught ethics, politeness and math.  That makes successful citizens later.

            Governor Stitt has a proposal that seeks to instill some competition into public schools by having $3000 of the $13,000 spent per student follow the student wherever the parents wish the child to attend. His opponent is very much in bed with the teachers unions and educrats and says this “steals money’ from the public school districts although they would retain the $10,000 remainder when a student goes elsewhere and in some cases get to still count that student as one of their own.  Looks like a good deal all around to me.  Well, if Hoffmeister wins and the deal dies, it will surely drive parents to the doors of our 3 parochial schools in town. And Oklahoma continues 46^th in ranking.   

Why midterm polls always break just before election day

 

Why Election prospects are suddenly turning right. These explanations from Catharine Shaw (Dem, Oregon) and Karl Rove (Rep, Texas).  First, polling in the summer is merely “adults” or “registered voters”.  Adults could be felons and unregistered folks who never darken the doorstep of a polling place.  Registered voters are better, but include voters who rarely vote.  Electon boards however, have records of how many times a voter has voted.  Usually quoted among political pros is the last 4 general elections held ever two years.  A 4/4 means voted 4 times out of 4 possible elections, a 3/ 4 voted 3 times.  Likely voters are 4/4s or 3/4s.  But for less likely voters, they only count as a prorated amount due to how often they vote.  This “likely voters” poll is far better at prediction of an outcome but only starts popping up in October.

            Moreover, independents only vote half the time, so they often show up as unlikely and are prorated down in such likely voter polls.

            Then comes the enormous problem of how to normalize party distribution when your poll contains a lot more respondents of one party than the other.  Republicans notoriously won’t answer much.  This year it has gotten so bad that many pollsters have resorted to selecting a panel and going around asking preference.  The problem with this is the voter who holds his cards close to his chest—which Rs do and some independents. 

            Indies are an interesting bunch.  About 20% are “hidden partisans” who always vote R or D but disguise the fact because their friends or family disagree with them.  Calling yourself independent allows one the snobbery of being “discerning” or at least doesn’t get your dad mad. Only 20% of Indies actually weigh candidates until the last minute—the mistaken image the media paints of them.  60% of Independents frankly dislike both parties. The reason only two midterms had a party in power improve their majorities since WW II? It  is that the independents show up and vote their current hatred of that party in power. So they flip-flop against from one party to the other depending on if it is in power or not. Why do they dislike both parties.  Sometimes their deep personal issue is one neither party cares to address. “I want unlimited speed limits on highways!” Or they side with conservatives on fiscal but liberals on social issues (or vice versa).  This puts they always at odds with both major parties. Or they are reactionary. “Nobody cares about the socialist labor movement anymore but I do!”

            Result is that polls always break in favor of the party out of power in midterms in the last 3 weeks.  And  pros have certain fudge factors and multipliers worked out (and kept secret) for each state election. 

Explaining LIz Truss

 

NOBODY, BUT NOBODY SEEMS ABLE TO EXPLAIN THE LIZ TRUSS AFFAIR. It’s easy.  Britain has inflation almost as high as ours.  Their central bank, Bank Of England, like our Fed dithered when it started.  And the British govt spent a lot on aid due to lockdowns which set off the inflation.  The Conservative party tossed their leader, Johnson, over scandals.  They elected (only party officials vote) Liz Truss.  She was insistent on a Reaganesque revival—low taxes, lower regulations.  But that is only half the equation when you have too much money and too few goods.  Less taxes/regs help the economic gains which will provide more revenue dollars eventually, but the Brits want no part of reducing too much money.  They like their welfare state and don’t want cuts in govt spending. And BOE waffled to take the hard steps in tightening the money supply.  So the pound is cheap, has gone lower, from $1.20 per pound to about $1.15.  The announcement of lower taxes without anything else, caused the pound to plummet on markets to about $1.06.  That means the banks would get loans paid back in cheap real costs, and lose money.  And international banking is a huge industry in London where the Conservative party has it’s greatest strength.  The howls were immediate from the elites of the party and they ran her out of the prime minister job.  She tried to stem the problem by announcing that only the lower taxes to the poorer classes would be in her program, cancelling the upper bracket cuts.  She fired her finance minister.  But in the end, she was drummed out of office and she resigned today.

            If our media people understood the fundamentals of how inflation must be fought, they would have been able to tell this simple story.  Instead they carry all the tit-for-tat and commentary from Britain and Brit migrants on our tube.  

            Reagan had a similar trouble selling his low taxes.  Everybody said it would result in more deficits. But he included de-regulation, and the fed had raised interest sky-high, to 18%.  In the end, RR’s borrowed idea from Laffer of getting more revenue from lower tax rates (because people were hiding their income from taxes) actually worked and worked in spades to the chagrin of Democrats and astonishment of establishment R’s who had called it Voodoo economics. The name Reaganomics was meant as a slur by the media and Dems.  Instead it became a rallying cry for R’s even down to this day.

What's with the Abortion campaign?

 

TOOK CIVICS IN HIGH SCHOOL and we cowboys griped about there being so much to know on the Constitution.  Why did we have t memorize the rights covered in each amendment in the Bill of Rights? The teacher was an immigrant and he had no sympathy for us lazy American kids.  “It is because someday you’ll be in a meeting and someone will say something against your rights.  Say, you are in a city meeting and the fire station has been destroyed by a storm.  One city councilman suggests that for the good of the city, all citizens should be forced to keep a firemen overnight. But you should stand up and say, “No Charlie!  Remember that violates the 3^rd Amendment. We can’t do that.” And he would say, “Oh, yeah, I forgot.  You’re right.” Every American should have these rights on the tip of their tongue.  Anyone who tries to take them away will be stared down by every citizen, and you won’t have to live under a tyrant like we did.”

            Today, Biden said he wanted to codify a universal right to an abortion.  “No, Joe, the Supreme Court has said with a resounding vote that they find no such right in the Constitution. And Amendment 9 says there are likely to be some other rights.  But Amendment 10 says that if they aren’t among the enumerated rights of the Constitution, they are reserved to the states. And the opinions of the court say exactly that---it has now become a state’s issue.” Thus if Congress passes a statute, it will be struck down flat, as if SCOTUS were to say, “Didn’t you listen to what we said?”  But of course, people could pass a Constitutional Amendment—2/3 both houses and ¾ of the states. Good luck getting that!

            So in the end, not much changes.  All the abortion clinics in liberal states will stay open. 11 states have no abortion clinics and practically speaking, it makes no difference if they pass a ban.  8 others have strict regulations and only one clinic in the state. Nobody is going to change much of this.

            And if you run for Congress or Senate, you will have NO say.  You need to run for state office to have a stay. So why does no one in the media not shoot this straw dog? Maybe they didn't take Civics. 

Why inflation won't go away soon

MILTON FRIEDMAN published his classic paper on inflation in 1978.  He described 3 prior inflationary go-rounds that only led to higher inflation.  It goes like this.  Government initially inflates due to deficit spending (Vietnam and Great Society) followed by too much money chasing too few goods—inflation.  But the price increases cause consumers (70% of the economy) to cut back. This brings recession (1969,1973).  Politicians get cold feet at the sight of unemployment and overspend again.  This creates more inflation. It’s a cat-rat cycle.  You put a bunch of cats and rats in a cage.  Cats eat the rats and rats gang up on cats and eat the cats.  You get a lot of free skins.  In the case of inflation, govt and the bureaucracy gets the free skins of cheapened currency and lessened burden of debt.  But the people see their standard of living decline, jobs lost, and life savings shrunk.  Businesses see productivity declines, price controls, more regulation to try to curb prices, unions demanding big pay raises and govt demanding onerous taxes.  The whole country declines in malaise. But the bureaucrats find it easier to increase budgets (there is inflation!) and cheap currency means the real cost of national debt lessens.  Politicians say they can’t help further deficit spending because the Fed has raised interest rates and national debt must be serviced at higher interest costs much more. How much pain are the voters willing to take to tame inflation?  This likely drags on for years.

            Solution.  Fed creates tight money to reduce the “too much money” part. New blood in the politicians radically de-regulates business and lowers business taxes to increase the “too few goods”.  Productivity increases.  And it probably has to happen during a recession so that unions are scared to make high demands on wage increases. Meanwhile Reagan & Thatcher realized what many economists did not.  That if you cut taxes, govt actually gets increased revenue in a couple years. People and businesses stop fervently hiding their income from taxes, and actually pay more at the new lower rates. Plus the economy booms and they make more and pay more in taxes in subsequent years. (Laffer’s supply side economics). Caveat: This takes a number of years.

            We are just at the beginning of this long, hard road where Dem pols refuse to believe that deficit spending caused this and fantasize that more deficit spending will actually cure it. They’ve made enemies out of petroleum, gas, and coal, the 3 products necessary to make about 90% of all manufactured goods.  They are trying to remake social order by running off the police, border control, and military recruitment.  One of the great lessons in economics is that businesses die in a kleptocracy, central planning or an anarchy.  And it will take two more years to get Republicans into power.  But will they have the will to enact the solution? 

The bigger picture of climate change

 

  Climate changes.  But there’s far more to it than greenhouse gases. Ocean circulation is a big deal.  Here’s why.  The ability to store heat (‘specific heat’) of water is 5 times that of air.  Atmospheric pressure is 14.7 lbs. per square inch.  That is, one square inch area and all the air from sea level to the ionosphere in height weighs 14.7 lbs. That’s also the weight of a 32 foot column of water (1 X 1").  So in heat storage terms a column of water about 6 feet high stores as much heat as air as high as the atmosphere. 78% of the earth is covered by water. Thus the upper 8 feet of the oceans, lakes, etc. stores as much heat as the entire atmosphere does.

            Think what this means.  A big change in atmospheric temperature makes almost no change in the oceans. During the ice ages, deep ocean water was almost the same temperature. Beyond the continental shelves, oceans are uniformly 14,000 to 18,000 feet deep (exceptions are trenches and ocean ridges).  Only the upper 150 meters ever changes temperature.  Below the oxygen mimimum zone (just a little deeper), there is almost no light, 38 degree water, almost no dissolved oxygen to rot dead plants & critters floating to the bottom.

            Greenland is warming and cold freshwater flows off the island, which stores 1/3 the fresh water in the world.  When that sinking freshwater hits the ocean, it is denser than even deep ocean water and displaces the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) to well up in the Grand Banks with nutrients such that ocean life has a feeding frenzy.  It also wells up near in the tropics offshore Africa where Sahara winds in the summer blow over the water and makes our hurricanes.  If you don’t get melting glaciers in Greenland, ice pack surrounds the island, there’s no NADW displacement and what little upwelling there is moves south of the equator setting up an La Nina condition in the Atlantic. The effect even caries over to the Indian and Pacific oceans The La Nina means drought from mid-USA to Central America like the dust bowl of the 30s.  As this progresses we get another ice age. But today, we live in a time of inter-glacial melting where the world constantly warms.  Ice cores from 3 million years of Greenland ice show that when an ice age starts it rapidly accelerates, often over a hundred  years or so. ¾ the arable land is lost.

            Why an ice age?  The increase of a large white polar ice cap has a reflectivity of almost 100% which further accelerates temperature decline.  How cold?  About 35F degrees is usual. If the cloudiness of skies increases as well (cloud tops have a reflectivity of 98%) the earth cools stunningly fast.  Bottom line: cloud cover and ocean circulation is an overwhelmingly large effect than CO2. 

            There’s more.  Solar radiation seems to rise and fall by about 1%.  The cause is as yet unknown.  But the fall from the 1300s to the 1800s caused a drop of as much as 10F degrees during the “Little Ice Age” of Europe and Asia. Volcanic eruptions have been shown to radically cool and disrupt crop production for 5-10 years causing mass famines.  Combined with  the nutation of the earth’s axis, these may serve to start another ice age.  We’re not sure. 24 of the last 26 ice ages correspond to nutation. Nutation is like a top that stops its smooth rotation to shudder in a few wobbles.  In the earth’s case our nutating axis tips from 22 to 24 degrees disrupting climate. Bottom line: We don’t understand all of this, but all these effects are very large compared to the 2 degrees of “global warming” due to industry that politicians love to pontificate about.

Indigginest peoples day

 

Happy Indigeonous Peoples Day a day late and Colombus day a day eartly.  We hat a Ponca Indian mentor son who was 15.  One day he heard that I had been hand-digging a trench for a water line, and my back was killing me. “I’ll help!”  and he did handsomely, helping me finish a forty foot trench 2 feet deep.  Where did he learn to dig?  Well, before his mom got on drugs and his dad died, his grandfather used to get him to help digging and said, “Hayna, we are the indigginest people.”  Ahem.  Indian joke.

            Colombus was a great navigator and adventurer, but a horrible governor.  His colony of Hispanola didn’t grow or produce much for 40 years after his discovery.  It wasn’t entirely his fault.  Europeans carried Euro-Asian diseases that the native Americans hadn’t seen.  One of the reasons we know the Vikings had little luck establishing a post in N. America is that the Indians didn’t get sick.  Little contact.  Secondly, Colombus left governors over the colony who lorded it over the natives, making them slaves.  But their constant dying from diseases made the Spanish think them weaklings and Africans were imported.  The Spanish were a proud people who had just defeated the Muslims in Spain and didn’t want to get their hands dirty.  That was for the servants to do.  Thirdly, the central planning of the Spanish government dictated how many ships brought supplies and took back trading goods each year.  Thus there was no room for the beef cattle that flourished in Mexico, only hides. This led to a surplus of cattle that were just left to wander off and populate Tejas. 

            But the natives routinely enslaved others and had since time memorial.  Sometimes authors say that they treated slaves better, like family, but that seems to be only true of very nomadic tribes like those of the plains.  The Aztecs warred constantly in order to have human sacrifices.  One such “fest” had 20,000 killed in one day.  The Spanish didn’t respect the natives, but what else is new?  This history of the world if full of slavery and disrespect and conquest.  African Bantus genocided most of Africa 2000 years ago.  They had agriculture and the hunter-gatherers couldn’t compete.  Yet remants of these people live in small enclaves in Africa today—pygmys, Nilo-Saharans, bushmen, Madagascarans, Watusis, etc.  Thus modern anthropologists list 6 to 16 separate races in Africa who differ from Bantus more than Caucasians and Mongoloids do. And Bantus loved slavery, as did Chinese, S. Asians, Polynesians and native Americans.  

            The Spanish system of plantations (Haciendas) and absentee landlords, was also nothing new, but it was so inefficient that free and individual farmers and traders of British extraction beat the competition.  Christianity transformed displaced people, gave them hope and education, spawned science and engineering, and instilled a sense of fairness everywhere it went.  Sometimes it was a slow transition, but it has been the driving force of change throughout history.  Those of us who once dug ditches have come a long ways. "Don't call me no victim," Hayna used to laugh.  Now if you can say that given his tragic childhood, you are making it.   

Things we must change that will take time

 

The news this week is that Hunter Biden is likely to be charged. Yet for only gun violations and taxes.  So is this a whitewash, something he can plea bargain and the real issues of influence peddling will not be addressed?  The influence selling is so blatant in both videos and published emails that even a casual observer finds good grounds for suspicion. The reason people are suspicious is the recent history of one-sided prosecutions (Trump’s aides and JA 6 trespassers but not protestors of supreme court justices or the FBI crossfire hurricane gang that Congress referred for prosecution). Whatever the outcome it will take years for the FBI and DOJ to convince Americans that they do things fairly. 

            It will also take years to show the world that we are not cowards running from Afghanistan or Iraq or Libya.  The EU has been all a-buzz about how unreliable USA has become. Our former territory Phillippines and Solomon Islands have shunned us and made overtures to China.  It will take years to overcome inflation and stagnation due to $31T debt and only $20T of GDP.  It will take years to reorganize the bureaucracy.  Bias against conservatives, modernization of tech, and changing bureaucratic arrogance culture will all take time.

            For these reasons, I believe it would be better to nominate a fresh face than Donald Trump in 2024.  Trump can only serve one term. I liked Trump and consider him one of our top Presidents. He got a raw deal with Dem cheating in the election of 2020, but nowadays he spends most of his rallies lamenting how the election was stolen. That sadly reminds me of Stacey Abrams and Thomas Dewey. Trump was like a second Reagan with a businessman’s doggedness to accomplish things but we have others who will accomplish like Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, and other R’s with biz/organizational background.  They can fight back against the D’s/media as well.

            They could assemble Trump’s old economic team who seem eage to join the battle.  Get someone level-headed about justice like Matt Whittaker who served under Trump as AG.  Promote Generals who want to fight rather than teach wokeism. And let Heritage Foundation refer SCOTUS nominees like Trump did.

            Every Prez has some rough areas.  Reagan was too  remote on many issues. But Trump had them too.  He picked a lot of people who were disloyal and self-centered.  He never filled all his 4000 positions because he had no prior experience with government, no replacement team when he assumed office.  We don’t need more Christopher Wrays and Mad Dog Mattises and that Knothead from Alabama who couldn’t handle the AG job or Omarosa. 

            So while we love the job Trump did overall, we’re just hoping he retires at age 79, advises a new President who might get vindication of the election of 2020 on his behalf that inspires the public to accept.  That person might also be a communicator like Reagan, almost unassailable in graciousness and not have a 41% approval rating. 

            I guess I’m hoping Trump doesn’t run but still has influence.

Democrats explain how bad Republican initiatives on the economy are.

 

Dems critique of Republican economic proposals. 

Well for one thing, R’s don’t have punishments for oil company price gouging.  Has anyone explained how the oil industry works to D’s? Maybe we should try.  Producers, like farmers, produce a certain amount of petroleum and gas. That plus speculators set the market rates.  If God by the weather provides less raw farm commodities or govt by edict reduces drilling, we have less production.  It’s not the farmer’s fault there’s a food shortage or the oil producer’s fault oil is scarce.  Then the crude is refined by refiners who add about 25 cents per gallon to take raw crude to gasoline and diesel. They have little control over what they buy the crude for.  Gas stations sell gasoline for 0-5 cents profit and make their real money when you buy a Slurpie or coffee, which has 200% to 800% markup.  You want chips with that drink?

            Second D bitch (I’m talking gripe, not Pelosi) is that R’s want to defund the police.  Don’t scratch your head, here’s their logic. The IRS is the tax police and R’s want to limit auditing, therefore R’s want to defund the police.

            Third hair-on-fire proposal of R’s is to deregulate and lower taxes on the middle class, which helps small businesses enormously. Trickle Down Economics! the D's say. Here's an example on how the two sides differ. A Dem proposal before Congress right now is to make all businesses report the carbon footprint of those who use their products.  Thus farmers would have to report on the packing house that they sold the steer to, the processor who cut the steak and the consumer who ate it (stop farting!).  Farmers have almost no way to report such things and it would be an onerous bookkeeping requirement. Really what D’s hate about deregulation is that regulation is how govt controls people’s behavior.  Taxes too. Where oh where did the founding fathers come up with this idea that people should live the kind of life they want to live free of government controls?

            Meanwhile the R’s say that inflation is too much money chasing too few goods.  If the govt circulates 40% more money and things produced hardly change, expect 40% inflation over several years.  D’s counter, “You started it! Trump deficit spent $2T in 2020!"  True.  But that was to keep businesses solvent, people paid for lost wages during a pandemic we’ve not seen for 100 years—a national emergency. It had overwhelming bipartisan support. So having survived and swelled the money supply, it was time to step on the brakes in 2021, rather than add another $4T like Biden did. Put it this way.  I drive fast.  But when a corner comes up, I slow down.  Only a fool speeds up by double.

Single Af-Am women are most motivated to vote pro-abortion

 

Biggest supporters of unlimited abortion are low income, single, Af-Am women.  They see it as their “out” for broken relationships. This is the group Democrats often take for granted but it is who D's mean when they say that abortion rights will be big in the midterms. 

    Studies of lower class women in European sectors (no race involved) show that the prime differences that keep these communities poor is low married rate and sporadic income.  Women will often take a stop-gap job to support a family at low income whereas men, with much pride and effort invested in a career, are loathe to take a minor or different job to simply support a family. They stay unemployed longer. Men grow up knowing they must work, whereas women see a career as something to choose.  (Maybe they will work, but maybe they will be a housewife or live on welfare.)  Men have no choice and their life is aimed at work.  Until they believe they have arrived as productive members , they are forever Peter Pans--boys.  Once they become warriors of some skill they are then valued members of a team. But golly, the world is a big place and they need a partner!  Only then is marriage something they desire.  Women, don’t see their entire identity tied up in career, so they will often take a small or temporary job, but men hold off until they get meaningful career work. 

    Women truly want love and a relationship. They want to be beautiful in someone's eyes. Throw in a great (but safe) adventure, and there's a wonderful life. 

            Many impoverished males are out of work a lot.  Those who are consistent providers are fought over by the women. Women poach on other women. Single motherhood and abortion abounds. This affects Af-Ams more than other minorities in USA, but is true of all poor people. Yet among Af-Am Christian women, abortion is unpopular as is sexual immorality. In middle class Af-Ams, fidelity is common and abortions are not.

            There is a lesson for Republicans in this.  Sunday mornings are the most segregated time in America.  Encourage your church to team in ministry with black churches as well as other minority congregations. Jobs, jobs, jobs is the theme for improving the poor side of town. (Trump's roaring economy won more male Af-Am voters.) Invite black middle class friends to enjoy things together. . Of course these things won’t come about in time for the midterm elections. But it will get us back to our Republican roots as a party with a plan of freedom, faith, family and free enterprise that extends to all Americans.The Grand Old Party of America’s Grand Old Ideas.  

What's happening with European conservatives winning?

 

Liz Truss replaced Johnson in UK and Giorgio Meloni elected in Italy. Both are conservatives stressing family, faith, and free enterprise—the Reagan and Trump Republican values.  This came just a week after the Sweden Democrats, another conservative party, suddenly became the 2^nd largest party in Sweden and a year after Marine Le Pen, a conservative won 41% against Macron.  It’s a strong conservative trend sweeping Europe.  So why are Truss’s fellow British Tories wringing their hands and all over Europe they denounce faith-family-freedom parties as the latest Nazis? 

            Consider Brits first.  London dominates the UK with wages in the metro about $50,000 a year while $30,000 is common elsewhere.  Big international banks do this.  The Reaganomics method of getting USA out of stagflation was to lower regulations and taxes together with Fed tight money.  Tight money makes the dollar strong compared with other currencies, lowering costs of imports, reducing inflation.  De-regulation stimulates business, reducing their burden of compliance costs.  Tax cuts put money in pockets of consumers and businesses.  All 3 boost the supply side (production) of goods and services. Meanwhile tight money (high interest rates), while it fights business borrowing, tames inflation by reducing demand and overindulgence. But bankers hate tight money.  High interst makes them pay depositors more. A strong currency makes it more expensive for foreigners to borrow and harder for them to pay back as their own currency declines in value. The more the govt lowers taxes, the more people have to spend which makes the central bank (Bank of England, BOE) tighten.  What bankers love is for people to keep paying them back and lots of easy money to loan out.  Plus, as corporate lap dogs of the popular culture, they have bought into wokeism, climate change, etc. So when a conservative shows up spouting faith and family and freedom, it sounds like a moral threat. Thus half the Tories distrust Truss.

            The faith part of the equation is tiny in Britain where only 4% of the public goes to church even minimally.  But Italy has 40+% rate, like USA, the most Christian country in Europe. Italy has tons of debt, 150% of GDP, and the other EU countries are choking at her desire to cut taxes.  Italy, as part of EU is like a state in USA. A common euro is their currency. But what if a state cuts all its taxes and deficit spends? This inflates the euro. Worse,it draws businesses and more so with promise of de-regulation. [understand how regulated Europe is.  If you are a hog farmer and want to switch to cattle, you can’t simply do this as in USA. A county planning board will consider your application and maybe ten years later grant you a permit to change your farming.] Horrors! What would happen if French and Spanish companies fled to Italy.  To keep the euro where the EU wants it, a country that has run up debt (Italy) has tax policy somewhat dictated to keep that country from deficit spending (euro stable, they say). No consideration of how much lower taxes will spur the economy is accounted for. Nor is de-regulation. Meloni sees it more like good policy of TX and FL draw people away from CA and NY.  And faith!? Most of Europe is areligious, see themselves as citizens of the world (albeit with unique cultures), want lax borders, and have bought into the pop culture and wokeism.  Hence Meloni is a religious fanatic, a possible fascist and threat to the rest!

            Bottom line: people (voters) want jobs and a good economy.  But the bankers and neighbors want control.