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Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Stagflation coming

 OIL IS UP 10% LAST 5 DAYS    Saudis are blamed but actually there has been a developing dearth of oil in the last 6 months.  The bigger problem is gov’t spending.  Budget deficit for fiscal 2023, ending end of Sept., is $1.74 Trillion= 6.5% of GDP.  That’s the highest percent GDP deficit since WW II.  Reagan presided over 5.9% but that was fighting the 1978-1982 recession.  This one is happening when the economy should be in recovery and unemployment is 3.6%.  There is no justification for such a deficit unless it’s WW III or a Great Depression. Thus fuel will rise from low supply and an inflating dollar.  And when that happens, inflation elsewhere will re-arise, unless we fall into a  nasty recession where no one has money to buy. Because of our fiscal madness that I hardly trust R’s who passed the omnibus porkulus last December along with the dysenterial spending D’s.  It even worries me about Trump and several of the other R’s running.  You can rah-rah a new program all you want but economics and numbers don’t lie. Get ready for stagflation—good to run against politically—but hell to pay when the bill comes due,, and wicked to stop for whoever gets to be President. Are there any real men and women to stand in the gap?