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Friday, December 16, 2022

Meghan and Harry spat with royals explained

It works like this.  The king no longer rules, he and family are in charge of  British Public Relations. This includes a lot of boring stuff, ribbon cutting at a local senior center, honoring some British scientist, etc. They use lots of pomp and circumstance that tourists love and so it is a net win for UK to keep them funded—about the same  price as running a single NFL team with lots more ancilatory sales.  In projecting a good image, they are stuffy and boring, which has led a lot of Brits to shrug and say, “Let’s abolish the monarchy.” Exactly what the monarchy DOESN’T WANT. So they leak a lot of snippets of life of the royal family to give some spice to things.  Most the the Brits would rather see an occasional fight, rather than the Queen's Welsh Corgis, but this threatens the Institution.  So they hide most spats. Thus the paparazzi are fed and watered with trivia, but nothing is damaged.

            When a new person arrives on the scene, a child grown up or a new wife, they can be quite unsettling, not just to the family that has learned to be quite formal and stuffed shirted, but also the staff who have been working with them for decades.  And the staff are the ones who do most of the leaking to the tabloids. Such a newcomer was Diana, who wanted to cuddle her kids instead of assigning them to a nanny or farming out their coming of age to some crusty uncle who has a castle on the Scottish coast. Diana was mom in the modern romantic sense.  Ah, but there has hardly been an English king going back to Alfred the Great who didn’t have mistresses. So Charles and Diana had such a problem and her usurpation of staff's job of child rearing, ticked off the leak-givers.  All manner of events were retold by the tabloids that cast Diana in a poor light. 

            When Harry and Meghan married, the same oblique criticism of his new bride had already taken place.  Eventually, after it began it became a veiled racism by that minority of the press who wanted to indulge it.  Harry is pissed that no one rushed to defend his love, and so he did. The leaks were lies, after all.  Her approval ratings slid to low levels and she was offended, but according to Harry, no one at the palace wanted to talk about it.  He clamored for audience over this, but was rebuffed by the Queen’s staff (one of whom has now resigned, having been caught in a rather dogged race-laced grilling of another British citizen of Caribbean/African descent.) Meghan moved to Canada. Harry said he wanted to do less royal work.  Finally a meeting was arranged but he confronted a sheet of choices ranging from “Get out” to “stay completely in.”  He chose a middling option, to step down from royal duties somewhat, and he claims that his brother, William started screaming at him over his desires.  Willie wanted complete support and likely doesn’t like all that ceremonial ground-breaking for all those darned recreational centers and bridges.

            The upshot of this is that the world has the spectacle of a royal donnybrook, just what the commoner Brits want to spawn their discussions rather than that losing futball team.  Harry and Meghan are making money off it. People are interested worldwide.  And in the end nothing much happens to the stuffed shirts in Buckingham palace, whether you are a sympathizer or not of H&M.  The Institution goes on.  The only tragedy, from an American point of view is that the monarchy failed to integrate a very attractive and entertaining mixed-race member along with her interesting red-haired flame. And with it, world-wide interest in the British monarchy drops a notch.  It is as if the chefs of a high-class restaurant ran off Guy Fieri and none of the valets wanted to park his lousy old car. 

Thursday, December 8, 2022

A HIDDEN STORY OF HOW YOUR TAXES WILL CHANGE NEXT YEAR.

 

IRS will require 1099K’s be issued for all purchases over $600 next year.  This has been the formal requirement by the feds ever since Obamacare, but if one’s accounting is faithful, it makes no difference in federal revenue, thus has rarely been don by businesses for small purchases.  It applies only to business transactions. But with the 87,000 new agents, IRS now wants to require it for all transactions over $600.  This will generate a mountain of paper with almost every transaction of certain businesses required to provide a 1099. The reason this came about with Obamacare was that it was perceived as a way to pay for it. But then IRS quickly yelled uncle because of the tons of paper that would be coming their way. 

            Whywas this part of Obamacare? Democrats believe that most small businessmen, tradesmen and farmers are crooks hiding income. After all, they vote 90% Republican. A small subset of them actually are petty tax cheats. By requiring 1099s Dems hope to find  more money.  But think about this.  If a return and accounting are honest, the 1099 (a note to the govt that you’ve paid someone some money) is unneeded.  It generates zero federal revenue. 

            So in 2023 if you go to Walmart and buy a TV for $601, will you have to remit a 1099 to Walmart? Yes, if any portion of its use is for business. A car repair? Yes, if the car is used for any deduction or business. (Keep your fuel receipts handy too.) What if you mow your neighbor’s lawn while he’s gone and he mows yours in return?  Technically, you are both engaged in a service business and must record fair market value for the services.  But of course, it will be hard to catch people doing such things. And what if a business buys something for nominally $601 and agress to 2 payments of $302? Then there is no 1099.  Do you see how this gets complicated? Is a staggering burden for small biz?

            The fed govt dreams of block chains.  That is, a crytodollar being used.  There will be no cash allowed.  Instead of transactions being secret, by lack of ID like they are in current crypto currencies, everyone’s business will be viewable by govt.  But we aren’t there yet.

            Think of the consequences of 2023.  A voter rebellion may be in store. Or bartering may occur.  Currently, stuff gets bartered—say, a dozen eggs for a haircut—by some very small players, often on welfare or with no visible means of support.  The origin of currencies came when a guy went to town with his load of firewood to barter for something else like flour.  It’s very cumbersome to haul your load of wood around town.  So a guy with a warehouse says, “Park it in my warehouse and I’ll give you a note to say you own so much wood.”  You could then go to the miller and agree on a rick of wood for a bushel of flour.  You give a claim note on your load, and he gives you one on his load of flour in the warehouse. And you both go to claim your stuff.  But maybe he needed milk more than firewood and traded the firewood note to a dairyman.  Eventually people got to the point where they were trading their notes.  And who verified the purchases? The guys sitting in the town square on benches “banks”.  They were often Jews making coins out of gold.  So notes and coins became a currency.  And states or businesses also made their own currencies from ancient times.  Multiple odd currencies were found all the way up into the 1950s. What would happen if the mafia wanted secret transactions after crypto dollars were put in place?  They’d devise their own secret notes/currency.  And maybe others would like handling this new “cash” so they would also trade mafiabucks.  In fact, this might happen even without crypto dollars, simply because govt has made the system too burdensome or too surveilled. 

            2023 is going to be an interesting year. 

Friday, December 2, 2022

More election analysis by Schoen

 

ANOTHER VOTER & ELECTION ANALYSIS by Doug Schoen puts up some pretty interesting numbers. 3 groups of voters emerge.  Progressives are a quarter of the electorate. They are just what we think—media, much educated elites, some poor people who envision a utopian ideal of large government and controlling gov’t.  Of these 25% of the electorate, Democrats win 24 to 1.  Next are True Populists who are 34% of the total.  They believe in God-given rights and American exceptionalism (patriotic and nationalistic) 6 out of 10 of this group are Rs and ¾ of them vote R.  Hence R’s carry this 34% by 26 to 8 points. Their main issues are the things that attack individual freedom—bad economy, crime, uncontrolled borders. Semi-populists comprise 35%.  They aren’t so sure of God giving the rights or of being so patriotic, but tend to agree with the 3 issues that also resonate with populists.  R’s carry this 34% by 20 to 14 points.

            If you add the points R’s get 47 vs. D’s 46. But there is another 7% which voted 5 to 2 in favor of R’s.  Schoen says: Warning to Democrats, your wokeism and big govt leftism only appeals to 25% of the electorate.  Warning to R’s: You have won the true populists but not the semis. Many of these guys remain registered Ds and if the Ds ever discard wokeism, they are likely to win them back. 

            Here’s what I think it tells us.  The strong trend of existentialism leading many to question whether religion is of any value and the lack of civics education in schools makes semi-populists think the way they do.  For indeed, the notion of God-given rights is part of our  Declaration “We hold these truths…” and Constitution with its references to a Higher Power. Sans religious faith, people just think maybe we can make up the rules as we go along, we are not the sovereign state. If Rs are to gain this muddled middle, we need to demand we teach civics and redouble our attempts to reach those who just shrug away their existence.

Monday, November 28, 2022

Elections in December?

 

We should move election day to the first Tuesday in December. Then it would remind many that while your politician may be born in Scranton and rise to be President, we have a King who was born manure-floored sheep stye and placed in a manger.  Who then rose from the dead to rule over all the physical universe. Top that, if you dare.

            And it was this singular man and His life that caused Jefferson, with at least 3 dozen men looking over his shoulder to pen the Declaration of Independence.  That famous line about all men being created equal was lifted almost verbatim from John Locke, the Father of Modern Psychology who considered what kind of government men would truly love and prosper under in his Two Treatises on Government. A Christian author, Locke resonated with the Americans who had just undergone an enormous religious revival, the Great Awakening.  We were born of Judeo-Christian ethic that also accepts the non-believer to “live life as you want to live it,” within the bounds of our social contract, with self-evident rights.

            “That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.” This rules out a theocracy of priests, nor divine right of Kings or a a power-elite who refuse to be questioned.  Instead it is a system where the people governed grant power to their government.  We the People give consent.  It is not God over Government over People, but God over People over Government. How does this square with the Almighty?  Well, if God gives some person a mission in life, who can abort such a mission without ultimate judgment from God?  And none of us knows the heart of another, where the mission lies. Voting in December would remind us of something. The guy born in the manger, the One who said, ”Fear not for I have redeemed you; I have called  you by name, you are Mine.” gave us the love to extend those rights to all who live in our country. Some thought to refuse those inalienable rights to slaves, some thought Native Americans were savages and should be excluded as well.  Republicans fought them both times.  Republicans fight again to preserve religious liberty, free uncensored speech without woke demands, right to bear arms, property stewardship with limits on government unreasonable surveillance and seizure, due process of law, rights reserved to the states and the people, a limited government, free enterprise and a free people.

            Whether a December voting date would remind us of these core principles is open for debate.  Certainly if our schools taught them, it would make some sense.  Like Dorothy in Wizard of Oz, some of us wonder if some of the rest of America lives in a crazy dream world such that even a 12 year old girl can figure out won't work.

Monday, November 21, 2022

The real scoop on the election

 

THE ELECTION BY THE NUMBERS is an article by Jeffery Anderson  in City Journal this weekend.  In it he notes exit polls (polling after people come out of the voting locations).  I summarize. Asked their main reason for voting, 32% said to “oppose” Biden, 28% in opposition to Trump. This is 2/3 of the voters and results are a dead heat between a President and a former defeated candidate. Unprecedented—no former election had massive voters voting against a former President. Trump brings out opposition. Abortion was not much of a factor (10%).  But Rs won the issue with more R voters among those who oppose abortion and those who have less conviction and even support some abortions. Only a few diehard pro-abortion voters supported Democrats.  Republicans won the popular vote by 4%.  So why did the Rs lose close races and gain just a few House seats (8-12 at this point)? 

Mail-in voting has not increased voting much among the formerly disengaged. Total votes in 2022 is slightly less than in 2018. (Not far higher as has been the talk) Nor can mail-ins explain why Hassan won by 9 points in NH, a state with only election day voting.

Redistricting was heavy in D states but that can’t explain why close Senate races (<10% margins), Rs lost 4 out of 7, and Governor races they lost 7 out of 9. Those are statewide races. Rs out-mobilized 36% to 33% of total voters.

But Dems won Independents 49% to 47%. Part of the problem in Rs losing tight races.

Candidate quality/extremist Republicans did not show up in exit polliing Only Blacke Masters race in AZ was he considered too extreme. Generic polling “Is either party too extreme? Which one?” Rs=39%, Ds=38%.

But Candidate Resumes is a likely factor in tight races.  17 close Senate and Gov races were single digit wins. All l17 Dems had held previous office from a statewide election or had been in state offices or Congress. Only 7 Rs had been. People expect experience in higher govt offices. Before Trump, only one  President was elected that did not hold a Senate, VP, or cabinet position.  That one exception is Lincoln who had, in fact been a congressman.

Moderate establishment candidates did poorly. This may be explained by the partisan nature of the voters these days.

More surprises? 74% are dissatisfied with both parties. 76% say we are on the wrong track. 52% “aren’t very confident” that their state elections are fair and accurate.  Rs got 39% of Hispanic voters and 14% of Af-Americans, equal to of higher than even in 2020. Rs won 7% margins in married men, married women, and single men, but lost single women by 37%. Ds won urbans by +17% and Rs won rural by +29% and suburbs by +6%.  The only guy who scored almost complete wins was DeSantis who won urbans and Hispanics by 18% and lost single women by only 1 point.

Bottom line seems to be that citizens are looking for genuine leaders who are up to the challenges present and coming, and not finding much of anyone.  Expect no party to hoist its flag for long if they can’t come up with these people.

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

What won't change

SOME THINGS WON’T CHANGE DESPITE THE ELECTION. 

Rs made hay out of the Inflation issue and crime issue, but frankly, what can a federal lawmaker do about crime? It’s a gang warfare and do idiot bail reforms. Police depantments have been defunded and officers let go.  Prosecutors are elected locally and they have been culprits in letting criminals walk.  And that will continue until people realize their problem and act on it in their area. 

            Likewise Ds made hay out of the abortion issue.  But realistically, what changes? Several states have no abortion clinics.  Even a national right to abortion won’t buy you one in those states.  Other states have numerous clinics and aren’t about to disallow abortions.  The Supremes have told everyone that Abortion Rights is not in the constitution and so it is a state’s issue.  Pass any sort of federal law about the right and it will be struck down by the Supremes. In real life practice, little changes with Dobbs. 

            Inflation won’t come under control for a number of years.  Bipartisan Congress passed $2T of relief in 2020. But then Biden added 3 bills of $1.9T,1.2T and .6T.  Plus the $.6T of normal gov’t deficit spending and another $1T from the Fed (remember they were still “tapering” purchase of bonds during 2021) The injection of $8T on top of money supply of $16T adds, over several years, almost 50% to the  amount of money in circulation.  That means roughly 50% inflation over a number of years. BUT that is true only if more stimulus isn’t added like Biden’s $500B debt forgiveness.  And then unions will strike wanting inflation added to their contracts in addition to the usual increases.  Now Congress can put their foot on the brake of spending as it occurs.

            Then too, prices go up, people cut back and that affects consumer spending which is 70% of the GDP.  This will bring Recession. All the talk of ‘soft landing” applies only to Fed raising interest to quell heated demand in normal times.  In Inflationary economies, we get stagflation—recession in the midst of rising prices. And what might tip off a recession soon?  Housing markets all around the world are crashing.  Prices are down 9% in Canada so far this year.  If a worldwide housing crunch takes place it will be like the one we had in USA 2007-2009.  Since the amount of buildings is 3 X the amount in stock markets, a housing crash is enormous, would draw USA in on it, and take a long recovery.

Meanwhile, smile about Oklahoma's R victories! 

Saturday, November 5, 2022

What's wrong with Baseball

 World Serier final game summary.  Phils brought out the big bird, Schwarbler who hit a homer.  Desperato Alvarado pitched to Alvarez who hit it a mile and pitching all around was almost unhittable.  All runs come via home runs. Greatest mystery was if Dusty Baker uses the same toothpick all game long of it he goes for a new pick each inning. But I was happy to see the Strohs win.

            As a 70-year baseball fan, I must lament that baseball has become boring.  Batters work on homer hitting since that excites fans, makes the replays, and brings mega salaries.  Nobody bunts. Few stolen bases.  The squeeze play is so rare the broadcasters would have to look it up in the history books. Otherwise pitchers throwing hundred mile-per-hour fastballs rule.  Teams stock numerous relief pitchers so the pitch count doesn’t get too high for the starter.  Batters can’t hit very much.  When they do get a single, outfielders trot to retrieve the ball usually with no resolve to make a spectacular play.  The result is a game dominated by long at-bats as pitcher attempts strike-outs on junk pitches. Home runs make most of the scores.  It begins to look like a hockey game or soccer where you wait 3 or 4 hours to see a run and batting averages of .300 are rare. 

            They have tried all kinds of solutions and baseball is losing fans every year.  I’d move the pitcher back 6 or10 feet so that the batters would have a better chance to time those lightning pitches.  That would mean more hits and the increased spacing would encourage the ancient art of bunting once again. The pitch time would increase fractionally and give base stealers more of a chance.  With more hits, great fielding would become a premium more. Then move the fences back about 15 feet which may be as simple as fencing off the lower 4 rows of outfield binocular seating.  No home runs less than 400 feet. Then playing the outfield would be more of a game.  Use robotic ball-strike calling to get rid of the absolutely wrong pitch calls. Finally, we now have 12 of the entire 30 teams competing in playoffs. It means that one mediocre team can get hot and beat everybody. Which leaves fans wondering if there is any reason for playing a regular season. If that is the intent, then stop the regulation season at 154 games as of old, midway through September.  Have all playoff series be best of 7 games long, none of this 2-and-done stuff.  Baseball is always a game of probability and an extended series is needed to derive a champ.   

HOW Do DEMOCRATS SHOOT THEMSELVES IN THE FOOT ?

 

HOW DID DEMOCRATS SHOOT THEMSELVES IN THE FOOT SO BADLY WITH INFLATION, AFGHANISTAN, CRIME, ETC.? It boils down to the mistakes that happen to not-so intelligent people with grandiose ideas about themselves as leaders.  In short, ego.  Trace this back to the nobility of Europe.  During the Dark Age, there had to be some local strongmen with soldiers to defend against the onslaught of barbarians, from Goths to Norsemen.  Those strongmen didn’t work except to train in warfare and lorded it over the ordinary people. They eventually began to think of themselves as the smart people, above others, divinely installed to rule.  Noble vs. ignoble.  Ignoble peasants were considered animals while the nobles were supreme.  When the French Revolution occurred, these nobles and royalty were in terror that they would be next to be deposed and executed in their own countries.  So there arose a defense.  Yes, they were privileged but enlightened to use their wealth for good.  Don’t guillotine me, do it to that other guy who is an exploiter. It became known as nobilesse oblige, “obligation of the nobility”. It spread in USA to the plantation owners fearful of slave uprisings. (Slaves in USA were not completely downtrodden as in Caribbean and Brazil. Some were polite,could read and speech fluently—a horrifying prospect that they might get the upper hand.) To protect power, the owners were obligated to do a few good deeds and remind the underlings that they never had it so good. Liberalism/progressivism simply requires that one think of oneself as superior and worthy to run things (or enjoy freebees).  A lot of people dream of power. And so grandiose plans are constructed which other libs buy into as if they are their own, plans so wonderful that one becomes blind to the zillion inevitable pitfalls of life that sink even the best of intentions.  Hence the dumb bunny mistakes.  In a few months, add 30% to the supply of money that is in circulation and suddenly too much money is chasing too few goods.  Inflation.  Disdain the military men? Then they must be overruled in the Afghanistan exit plan. Debacle. Libs think their superiority will always win.  Lose an election? Don’t admit that maybe you miscalculated governance.  You just didn’t communicate  your superior ideas well. Someone opposes your plans?  They are not simply stupid or contrary-minded, they are vile and evil to oppose such wonderful plans. Ego.

            But this writer prefers the Party that considers ordinary people to be often rather bright, some capable of huge solutions he didn’t think about. Others are leaders, worker bees, kind servers, cheerleaders, all belonging to our team. Watch the returns on MSM after this year’s returns come in and see this phenom.   

Thursday, November 3, 2022

Changes in political demographics

 

Why are more Af-Ams and Hispanics voting R? It’s important to note this because there is a general stupidity pitfall in  politics.  After one party or the other wins big, they think that all the public has changed their mind and agrees with them.  That just sets you up for set-back in the next election.  Rs sometimes think that a win immediately gives them the initiative to pass no abortions or change education.  But these are deeply divisive issues in which tweaking is often a better stategy than going fanatic.  While I grieve deeply over abortion and am angered and insulted over educrats and bad schools, almost half of the rest of the population that disagrees.

            Latinos and Af-Ams are working more in the last few Trump years. Here’s # of employed men per 100 women.

Group   1980    1990     2000     2010     2020

Caucas.  130     130       125       110       102

Asian       120    140       110       100       100

Hispanic  98      125       115       105       112

Af-Am      58      55         50         50         56

Note historic trend is decline but 2020 changed for Af and Latinos. Men mature wanting to be a skilled part of a team or The Best or to go where no man has ever gone. We want to Measure Up.  It’s part of our DNA.  When you work you get angry about somebody taking away your hard-won earnings and Rs stand for lower taxes, less regulations, smaller govt.  The turn of the 20th century days of businesses exploiting voiceless workers once inflamed men. But this is no longer driving men to unionize with zeal like they did 100 years ago or even 50. So it is Af and Latino men who are doing the most switching of parties.

            Secondly, we intermarry.  In 1950 1% of Af-Ams and 10% of Asians intermarried.  Today it is 20% of Af-Ams and 50% of Asians.  Marry into a family of differing ideas and you start picking up some of their reasoning.

            Thirdly, Money.  62% of those who make $500K or more a year vote D.  65% of those who make less than $100K vote R. I first began to notice this “flip” of income demographics around 2000.  As a landlord who had about 20 apartments, I would talk to the tenants, many of whom make under $1500 per month and receive some forms of welfare and Medicaid.  Bottom line: almost all of them had bigger dreams and little sideline cash businesses to make enough to live better (trading comic books or baseball cards, driving as a sub taxi-cab driver, arts and crafts, etc.) And about half had very conservative attitudes, like the disabled woman who watched FOX non-stop, the farm wife who was living on minimum social security and Medicaid but still had rural values, the junk dealer looking for scrap iron and aluminum.  Many of the poor are minorities or lacking education yet they have aspirations for their kids.

            Fourth, they are employed by small biz.  Small business provides 70% of the new jobs and many can only afford low wages and the company truck is rusty.  You work closely with a boss and you empathize with his stuggles with bankers, code enforcers, health departments, and all the gov’t bureaucrats. 

            Fifth, Christianity.  If you feel like an oddball, or have experienced racism or are sadly poor, the promise of a close relationship with God that comes via Jesus Christ is a True Hope. Hispanics are all about faith, family and freedom and many church-going blacks are too.  46% of all Rs go to church regularly.  46% of all Ds never go to church. 63% of Americans are uneasy with social changes according to Gallup and Rs are the party of social issues. 83% of active Christians vote R. (By the way, 6-8% of media are church attenders)

            Certain issues resonate with minorities.  The border and illegals splits Hispanics.  Some see relatives and friends from the south coming in illegally but others are pissed by the cartels setting up in their community, gangs tempting their kids, and suffering of fellow Latinos along the Rio Grande having to put up with the onslaught. Latinos overwhelmingly favor good border policy and a reasonable immigration reform.Afro Americans are ticked over criminals in their midst, and the burning down of their neighbors businesses in black districts.  Crime is a very winning issue for Rs. Inflation is too which affects the poor disproportionately.

           Democrats hold strongly to a strategy of calling racism. 94% agreed with a statement by a major polling firm that "racism is built into our society," rather than "racism comes from racist individuals rather than society and institutions. Hispanics agreed 58% with the first and 36% with the second. 70% Hispanics agreed with "America is the greatest country in the world." while Dems only 19% agreed and 66% strongly disagreed. Hispanics cite Inflation/economy as their top issue by 61% and it is just a 5 percenter among Dems. Only 20% of Hispanics call themselves liberal but 35% say they are conservatives and 45% are moderates.

            Foreign policy? Farm policy?  Gun rights? Property Rights? States rights? Financial policy? All are good R issues but they affect growth in minority groups to a far lesser degree.  If we wish to grow the party, we need to realize that special emphasis is part of politics. But if the Democrats think they have a lock on minorities by there incessant racism charges, they got another thing coming.

Saturday, October 29, 2022

What did Josh say!!!

 

JOSH HAWLEY GAVE A SPEECH AND THE LEFT WENT APE. There were incensed editorials from numerous lefty newspapers.  Good grief! What did Hawley say? “We are a revolutionary nation precisely because we are heirs of the revolution of the Bible.” This caused the Kansas City Star editorial board to scream, “No. Our constitutional government, and therefore our nation, isn’t based on the Bible, or any religious text.” Sheesh! Where did Hawley say “constitution”?  He was just voicing a platitude.  Hawley noted the Bible “gave us equality between men and women.”  This caused the Star to erupt over the Bible and the founders who definitely disliked inequality, loved slavery and were racist.  They continued to slam this “inaccurate history, dubious theology and extreme hypocrisy that should worry every Missourian who believes in the separation of church and state…theocracy…White Christian nationalism overtaking the Republican party, endangering religious freedom for everyone.” Hmm. It always makes me suspicious of an author when he has scant proof to offer and extends to to wild accusations.  That’s usually a writer who is dead wrong.

            To wit, the 1787 Constitution was a political compromise to re-write the Articles of Confederation which created a system that had resulted in discord between the member states and monetary problems.  Yet the Constitutional Convention wanted to preserve the Declaration of Independence in both sense of moral reason for the founding and in the actual union of 13 colonies into one federal system.  The Declaration claims that the people of this revolt were “All men are created equal and are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, among which are life liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” Who would have written this? Does an atheist believe in a Creator?  If said rights are ‘inalienable’ doesn’t that imply an active Creator?  What deist would write such a thing?  If all men are created equal, would a Hindu or Muslim assert such a thing? And it seems the Quran certainly doesn’t hold a right to life applies to pagans.  In short, these words fit only the Judeo-Christian beliefs. Indeed the quote, by Thomas Jefferson is almost exactly lifted from John Locke, the Christian and Government philosopher of Oxford University in Two Treatises on Government, 1675. In his day of divine right of kings, Locke was considered far out, but he took his ideas from Martin Luther’s Liberty of a Christian. The logic is simple. If a person has a god-given mission is life, no one has any business interrupting that lest they transgress God.  Therefore the Liberty is to let every person live the life they want to, unless it goes against the social contract (laws) of a nation. So when the Constitution calls for the “Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and to our children” that’s the same blessings gifted by the Creator of the Declaration. Oh, and by the way, 19 of 56 signers were clergymen. Only Thomas Paine and Ben Franklin were deists. Most of the deism movement came after we'd won our independence.

            And we have long been a nation of neither theocracy (where the priesthood rules) nor White Christian Nationalism. Tell me, do you know anyone who attended a White Christian Nationalism meeting in your neighborhood?  Moreover, such a social contract allowing Liberty to all seems acceptable to a good card-carrying atheist or agnostic as well. And those snarky comments about inequality not being a Christian tenant?  Then what do you make of the passage, written twice in both Gal. 3:28 and Col. 3:11 “For in Christ Jesus you are all sons of God, through faith…There is neither Jew nor Greek, there is neither slave nor free,. There is no male and female, for you are all one in Christ Jesus.” Um, I hope the leftist writers of the KC Star can understand that 2000 years ago when they referred to “all sons of God” they mean daughters too-- a common literary style--and that the reference to slaves and Greeks doesn’t change the position of such people but means spiritually, not physically. 

          Perhaps we can send the Gideons over to the Star with a complementary Bible so they can read it.

Monday, October 24, 2022

Oklahoma public school debate and proposal

 

Surely we still need public schools.  But golly, the results are disappointing.  Latest NAEP test scores show 8 points lost in 8th grade math and other losses about 5 points nationwide.  10 points is a year’s schooling. Everybody is blaming this on COVID but the scores had improved through 2018 and have now fallen.  The decline started prior to COVID and continues. But the Dept of Defense schools on bases has not fallen.  My sister-in-law and niece, who teach on an army base, say they love teaching the kids there because of DISCIPLINE.  Any disturbance that sends a kid to the office alerts the commanding officer to call the parents.  That seems to be enough to get the student straight.  The other place where NAEP scores haven’t fallen is at some Catholic schools which do the NAEP tests.  They stayed open mostly during COVID.  The Lutheran school I am particularly acquainted with also saw no loss of test results—though they use another testing agency than NAEP. (7th grade closed two weeks only during COVID) This school graduates 8th graders with 11th grade achievement scores every year.  One year all 22 students were labeled “college ready”.  The Lutheran Alumni students go on to public high school and are leaders throughout the high school.  Is this success due to cherry-picking the best students in the community?  No at allt. The student population has more minority students that the general population and scholarships help many of the kids attend.  This year there are 10 Dept.of Human Services custody foster children, and most are doing swell.  Likewise the Army base where my niece teaches has 47% Afro-American kids and scores better than the public schools in the city next door to the base.

            So my question is, “Do we need all that money and politics inserted into public schools?” Catholic and Lutheran schools educate elementary and middle school kids for less than half that of public schools. When I look at what these schools and charter schools do, they are much like the 1950s schools I attended when USA had schools far better than the rest of the world. Today we rank 28th in science and 20th in reading. We had one principal, small athletic facilities, parents very supportive, teachers that pulled you aside and assigned extra work if you excelled in some area, no-nonsense discipline environments where kids could learn as much as they could, and they taught ethics, politeness and math.  That makes successful citizens later.

            Governor Stitt has a proposal that seeks to instill some competition into public schools by having $3000 of the $13,000 spent per student follow the student wherever the parents wish the child to attend. His opponent is very much in bed with the teachers unions and educrats and says this “steals money’ from the public school districts although they would retain the $10,000 remainder when a student goes elsewhere and in some cases get to still count that student as one of their own.  Looks like a good deal all around to me.  Well, if Hoffmeister wins and the deal dies, it will surely drive parents to the doors of our 3 parochial schools in town. And Oklahoma continues 46th in ranking.   

Sunday, October 23, 2022

Why midterm polls always break just before election day

 

Why Election prospects are suddenly turning right. These explanations from Catharine Shaw (Dem, Oregon) and Karl Rove (Rep, Texas).  First, polling in the summer is merely “adults” or “registered voters”.  Adults could be felons and unregistered folks who never darken the doorstep of a polling place.  Registered voters are better, but include voters who rarely vote.  Electon boards however, have records of how many times a voter has voted.  Usually quoted among political pros is the last 4 general elections held ever two years.  A 4/4 means voted 4 times out of 4 possible elections, a 3/ 4 voted 3 times.  Likely voters are 4/4s or 3/4s.  But for less likely voters, they only count as a prorated amount due to how often they vote.  This “likely voters” poll is far better at prediction of an outcome but only starts popping up in October.

            Moreover, independents only vote half the time, so they often show up as unlikely and are prorated down in such likely voter polls.

            Then comes the enormous problem of how to normalize party distribution when your poll contains a lot more respondents of one party than the other.  Republicans notoriously won’t answer much.  This year it has gotten so bad that many pollsters have resorted to selecting a panel and going around asking preference.  The problem with this is the voter who holds his cards close to his chest—which Rs do and some independents. 

            Indies are an interesting bunch.  About 20% are “hidden partisans” who always vote R or D but disguise the fact because their friends or family disagree with them.  Calling yourself independent allows one the snobbery of being “discerning” or at least doesn’t get your dad mad. Only 20% of Indies actually weigh candidates until the last minute—the mistaken image the media paints of them.  60% of Independents frankly dislike both parties. The reason only two midterms had a party in power improve their majorities since WW II? It  is that the independents show up and vote their current hatred of that party in power. So they flip-flop against from one party to the other depending on if it is in power or not. Why do they dislike both parties.  Sometimes their deep personal issue is one neither party cares to address. “I want unlimited speed limits on highways!” Or they side with conservatives on fiscal but liberals on social issues (or vice versa).  This puts they always at odds with both major parties. Or they are reactionary. “Nobody cares about the socialist labor movement anymore but I do!”

            Result is that polls always break in favor of the party out of power in midterms in the last 3 weeks.  And  pros have certain fudge factors and multipliers worked out (and kept secret) for each state election. 

Thursday, October 20, 2022

Explaining LIz Truss

 

NOBODY, BUT NOBODY SEEMS ABLE TO EXPLAIN THE LIZ TRUSS AFFAIR. It’s easy.  Britain has inflation almost as high as ours.  Their central bank, Bank Of England, like our Fed dithered when it started.  And the British govt spent a lot on aid due to lockdowns which set off the inflation.  The Conservative party tossed their leader, Johnson, over scandals.  They elected (only party officials vote) Liz Truss.  She was insistent on a Reaganesque revival—low taxes, lower regulations.  But that is only half the equation when you have too much money and too few goods.  Less taxes/regs help the economic gains which will provide more revenue dollars eventually, but the Brits want no part of reducing too much money.  They like their welfare state and don’t want cuts in govt spending. And BOE waffled to take the hard steps in tightening the money supply.  So the pound is cheap, has gone lower, from $1.20 per pound to about $1.15.  The announcement of lower taxes without anything else, caused the pound to plummet on markets to about $1.06.  That means the banks would get loans paid back in cheap real costs, and lose money.  And international banking is a huge industry in London where the Conservative party has it’s greatest strength.  The howls were immediate from the elites of the party and they ran her out of the prime minister job.  She tried to stem the problem by announcing that only the lower taxes to the poorer classes would be in her program, cancelling the upper bracket cuts.  She fired her finance minister.  But in the end, she was drummed out of office and she resigned today.

            If our media people understood the fundamentals of how inflation must be fought, they would have been able to tell this simple story.  Instead they carry all the tit-for-tat and commentary from Britain and Brit migrants on our tube.  

            Reagan had a similar trouble selling his low taxes.  Everybody said it would result in more deficits. But he included de-regulation, and the fed had raised interest sky-high, to 18%.  In the end, RR’s borrowed idea from Laffer of getting more revenue from lower tax rates (because people were hiding their income from taxes) actually worked and worked in spades to the chagrin of Democrats and astonishment of establishment R’s who had called it Voodoo economics. The name Reaganomics was meant as a slur by the media and Dems.  Instead it became a rallying cry for R’s even down to this day.

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

What's with the Abortion campaign?

 

TOOK CIVICS IN HIGH SCHOOL and we cowboys griped about there being so much to know on the Constitution.  Why did we have t memorize the rights covered in each amendment in the Bill of Rights? The teacher was an immigrant and he had no sympathy for us lazy American kids.  “It is because someday you’ll be in a meeting and someone will say something against your rights.  Say, you are in a city meeting and the fire station has been destroyed by a storm.  One city councilman suggests that for the good of the city, all citizens should be forced to keep a firemen overnight. But you should stand up and say, “No Charlie!  Remember that violates the 3rd Amendment. We can’t do that.” And he would say, “Oh, yeah, I forgot.  You’re right.” Every American should have these rights on the tip of their tongue.  Anyone who tries to take them away will be stared down by every citizen, and you won’t have to live under a tyrant like we did.”

            Today, Biden said he wanted to codify a universal right to an abortion.  “No, Joe, the Supreme Court has said with a resounding vote that they find no such right in the Constitution. And Amendment 9 says there are likely to be some other rights.  But Amendment 10 says that if they aren’t among the enumerated rights of the Constitution, they are reserved to the states. And the opinions of the court say exactly that---it has now become a state’s issue.” Thus if Congress passes a statute, it will be struck down flat, as if SCOTUS were to say, “Didn’t you listen to what we said?”  But of course, people could pass a Constitutional Amendment—2/3 both houses and ¾ of the states. Good luck getting that!

            So in the end, not much changes.  All the abortion clinics in liberal states will stay open. 11 states have no abortion clinics and practically speaking, it makes no difference if they pass a ban.  8 others have strict regulations and only one clinic in the state. Nobody is going to change much of this.

            And if you run for Congress or Senate, you will have NO say.  You need to run for state office to have a stay. So why does no one in the media not shoot this straw dog? Maybe they didn't take Civics. 

Saturday, October 15, 2022

Why inflation won't go away soon

MILTON FRIEDMAN published his classic paper on inflation in 1978.  He described 3 prior inflationary go-rounds that only led to higher inflation.  It goes like this.  Government initially inflates due to deficit spending (Vietnam and Great Society) followed by too much money chasing too few goods—inflation.  But the price increases cause consumers (70% of the economy) to cut back. This brings recession (1969,1973).  Politicians get cold feet at the sight of unemployment and overspend again.  This creates more inflation. It’s a cat-rat cycle.  You put a bunch of cats and rats in a cage.  Cats eat the rats and rats gang up on cats and eat the cats.  You get a lot of free skins.  In the case of inflation, govt and the bureaucracy gets the free skins of cheapened currency and lessened burden of debt.  But the people see their standard of living decline, jobs lost, and life savings shrunk.  Businesses see productivity declines, price controls, more regulation to try to curb prices, unions demanding big pay raises and govt demanding onerous taxes.  The whole country declines in malaise. But the bureaucrats find it easier to increase budgets (there is inflation!) and cheap currency means the real cost of national debt lessens.  Politicians say they can’t help further deficit spending because the Fed has raised interest rates and national debt must be serviced at higher interest costs much more. How much pain are the voters willing to take to tame inflation?  This likely drags on for years.

            Solution.  Fed creates tight money to reduce the “too much money” part. New blood in the politicians radically de-regulates business and lowers business taxes to increase the “too few goods”.  Productivity increases.  And it probably has to happen during a recession so that unions are scared to make high demands on wage increases. Meanwhile Reagan & Thatcher realized what many economists did not.  That if you cut taxes, govt actually gets increased revenue in a couple years. People and businesses stop fervently hiding their income from taxes, and actually pay more at the new lower rates. Plus the economy booms and they make more and pay more in taxes in subsequent years. (Laffer’s supply side economics). Caveat: This takes a number of years.

            We are just at the beginning of this long, hard road where Dem pols refuse to believe that deficit spending caused this and fantasize that more deficit spending will actually cure it. They’ve made enemies out of petroleum, gas, and coal, the 3 products necessary to make about 90% of all manufactured goods.  They are trying to remake social order by running off the police, border control, and military recruitment.  One of the great lessons in economics is that businesses die in a kleptocracy, central planning or an anarchy.  And it will take two more years to get Republicans into power.  But will they have the will to enact the solution? 

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

The bigger picture of climate change

 

  Climate changes.  But there’s far more to it than greenhouse gases. Ocean circulation is a big deal.  Here’s why.  The ability to store heat (‘specific heat’) of water is 5 times that of air.  Atmospheric pressure is 14.7 lbs. per square inch.  That is, one square inch area and all the air from sea level to the ionosphere in height weighs 14.7 lbs. That’s also the weight of a 32 foot column of water (1 X 1").  So in heat storage terms a column of water about 6 feet high stores as much heat as air as high as the atmosphere. 78% of the earth is covered by water. Thus the upper 8 feet of the oceans, lakes, etc. stores as much heat as the entire atmosphere does.

            Think what this means.  A big change in atmospheric temperature makes almost no change in the oceans. During the ice ages, deep ocean water was almost the same temperature. Beyond the continental shelves, oceans are uniformly 14,000 to 18,000 feet deep (exceptions are trenches and ocean ridges).  Only the upper 150 meters ever changes temperature.  Below the oxygen mimimum zone (just a little deeper), there is almost no light, 38 degree water, almost no dissolved oxygen to rot dead plants & critters floating to the bottom.

            Greenland is warming and cold freshwater flows off the island, which stores 1/3 the fresh water in the world.  When that sinking freshwater hits the ocean, it is denser than even deep ocean water and displaces the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) to well up in the Grand Banks with nutrients such that ocean life has a feeding frenzy.  It also wells up near in the tropics offshore Africa where Sahara winds in the summer blow over the water and makes our hurricanes.  If you don’t get melting glaciers in Greenland, ice pack surrounds the island, there’s no NADW displacement and what little upwelling there is moves south of the equator setting up an La Nina condition in the Atlantic. The effect even caries over to the Indian and Pacific oceans The La Nina means drought from mid-USA to Central America like the dust bowl of the 30s.  As this progresses we get another ice age. But today, we live in a time of inter-glacial melting where the world constantly warms.  Ice cores from 3 million years of Greenland ice show that when an ice age starts it rapidly accelerates, often over a hundred  years or so. ¾ the arable land is lost.

            Why an ice age?  The increase of a large white polar ice cap has a reflectivity of almost 100% which further accelerates temperature decline.  How cold?  About 35F degrees is usual. If the cloudiness of skies increases as well (cloud tops have a reflectivity of 98%) the earth cools stunningly fast.  Bottom line: cloud cover and ocean circulation is an overwhelmingly large effect than CO2. 

            There’s more.  Solar radiation seems to rise and fall by about 1%.  The cause is as yet unknown.  But the fall from the 1300s to the 1800s caused a drop of as much as 10F degrees during the “Little Ice Age” of Europe and Asia. Volcanic eruptions have been shown to radically cool and disrupt crop production for 5-10 years causing mass famines.  Combined with  the nutation of the earth’s axis, these may serve to start another ice age.  We’re not sure. 24 of the last 26 ice ages correspond to nutation. Nutation is like a top that stops its smooth rotation to shudder in a few wobbles.  In the earth’s case our nutating axis tips from 22 to 24 degrees disrupting climate. Bottom line: We don’t understand all of this, but all these effects are very large compared to the 2 degrees of “global warming” due to industry that politicians love to pontificate about.

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Indigginest peoples day

 

Happy Indigeonous Peoples Day a day late and Colombus day a day eartly.  We hat a Ponca Indian mentor son who was 15.  One day he heard that I had been hand-digging a trench for a water line, and my back was killing me. “I’ll help!”  and he did handsomely, helping me finish a forty foot trench 2 feet deep.  Where did he learn to dig?  Well, before his mom got on drugs and his dad died, his grandfather used to get him to help digging and said, “Hayna, we are the indigginest people.”  Ahem.  Indian joke.

            Colombus was a great navigator and adventurer, but a horrible governor.  His colony of Hispanola didn’t grow or produce much for 40 years after his discovery.  It wasn’t entirely his fault.  Europeans carried Euro-Asian diseases that the native Americans hadn’t seen.  One of the reasons we know the Vikings had little luck establishing a post in N. America is that the Indians didn’t get sick.  Little contact.  Secondly, Colombus left governors over the colony who lorded it over the natives, making them slaves.  But their constant dying from diseases made the Spanish think them weaklings and Africans were imported.  The Spanish were a proud people who had just defeated the Muslims in Spain and didn’t want to get their hands dirty.  That was for the servants to do.  Thirdly, the central planning of the Spanish government dictated how many ships brought supplies and took back trading goods each year.  Thus there was no room for the beef cattle that flourished in Mexico, only hides. This led to a surplus of cattle that were just left to wander off and populate Tejas. 

            But the natives routinely enslaved others and had since time memorial.  Sometimes authors say that they treated slaves better, like family, but that seems to be only true of very nomadic tribes like those of the plains.  The Aztecs warred constantly in order to have human sacrifices.  One such “fest” had 20,000 killed in one day.  The Spanish didn’t respect the natives, but what else is new?  This history of the world if full of slavery and disrespect and conquest.  African Bantus genocided most of Africa 2000 years ago.  They had agriculture and the hunter-gatherers couldn’t compete.  Yet remants of these people live in small enclaves in Africa today—pygmys, Nilo-Saharans, bushmen, Madagascarans, Watusis, etc.  Thus modern anthropologists list 6 to 16 separate races in Africa who differ from Bantus more than Caucasians and Mongoloids do. And Bantus loved slavery, as did Chinese, S. Asians, Polynesians and native Americans.  

            The Spanish system of plantations (Haciendas) and absentee landlords, was also nothing new, but it was so inefficient that free and individual farmers and traders of British extraction beat the competition.  Christianity transformed displaced people, gave them hope and education, spawned science and engineering, and instilled a sense of fairness everywhere it went.  Sometimes it was a slow transition, but it has been the driving force of change throughout history.  Those of us who once dug ditches have come a long ways. "Don't call me no victim," Hayna used to laugh.  Now if you can say that given his tragic childhood, you are making it.   

Saturday, October 8, 2022

Things we must change that will take time

 

The news this week is that Hunter Biden is likely to be charged. Yet for only gun violations and taxes.  So is this a whitewash, something he can plea bargain and the real issues of influence peddling will not be addressed?  The influence selling is so blatant in both videos and published emails that even a casual observer finds good grounds for suspicion. The reason people are suspicious is the recent history of one-sided prosecutions (Trump’s aides and JA 6 trespassers but not protestors of supreme court justices or the FBI crossfire hurricane gang that Congress referred for prosecution). Whatever the outcome it will take years for the FBI and DOJ to convince Americans that they do things fairly. 

            It will also take years to show the world that we are not cowards running from Afghanistan or Iraq or Libya.  The EU has been all a-buzz about how unreliable USA has become. Our former territory Phillippines and Solomon Islands have shunned us and made overtures to China.  It will take years to overcome inflation and stagnation due to $31T debt and only $20T of GDP.  It will take years to reorganize the bureaucracy.  Bias against conservatives, modernization of tech, and changing bureaucratic arrogance culture will all take time.

            For these reasons, I believe it would be better to nominate a fresh face than Donald Trump in 2024.  Trump can only serve one term. I liked Trump and consider him one of our top Presidents. He got a raw deal with Dem cheating in the election of 2020, but nowadays he spends most of his rallies lamenting how the election was stolen. That sadly reminds me of Stacey Abrams and Thomas Dewey. Trump was like a second Reagan with a businessman’s doggedness to accomplish things but we have others who will accomplish like Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, and other R’s with biz/organizational background.  They can fight back against the D’s/media as well.

            They could assemble Trump’s old economic team who seem eage to join the battle.  Get someone level-headed about justice like Matt Whittaker who served under Trump as AG.  Promote Generals who want to fight rather than teach wokeism. And let Heritage Foundation refer SCOTUS nominees like Trump did.

            Every Prez has some rough areas.  Reagan was too  remote on many issues. But Trump had them too.  He picked a lot of people who were disloyal and self-centered.  He never filled all his 4000 positions because he had no prior experience with government, no replacement team when he assumed office.  We don’t need more Christopher Wrays and Mad Dog Mattises and that Knothead from Alabama who couldn’t handle the AG job or Omarosa. 

            So while we love the job Trump did overall, we’re just hoping he retires at age 79, advises a new President who might get vindication of the election of 2020 on his behalf that inspires the public to accept.  That person might also be a communicator like Reagan, almost unassailable in graciousness and not have a 41% approval rating. 

            I guess I’m hoping Trump doesn’t run but still has influence.

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Democrats explain how bad Republican initiatives on the economy are.

 

Dems critique of Republican economic proposals. 

Well for one thing, R’s don’t have punishments for oil company price gouging.  Has anyone explained how the oil industry works to D’s? Maybe we should try.  Producers, like farmers, produce a certain amount of petroleum and gas. That plus speculators set the market rates.  If God by the weather provides less raw farm commodities or govt by edict reduces drilling, we have less production.  It’s not the farmer’s fault there’s a food shortage or the oil producer’s fault oil is scarce.  Then the crude is refined by refiners who add about 25 cents per gallon to take raw crude to gasoline and diesel. They have little control over what they buy the crude for.  Gas stations sell gasoline for 0-5 cents profit and make their real money when you buy a Slurpie or coffee, which has 200% to 800% markup.  You want chips with that drink?

            Second D bitch (I’m talking gripe, not Pelosi) is that R’s want to defund the police.  Don’t scratch your head, here’s their logic. The IRS is the tax police and R’s want to limit auditing, therefore R’s want to defund the police.

            Third hair-on-fire proposal of R’s is to deregulate and lower taxes on the middle class, which helps small businesses enormously. Trickle Down Economics! the D's say. Here's an example on how the two sides differ. A Dem proposal before Congress right now is to make all businesses report the carbon footprint of those who use their products.  Thus farmers would have to report on the packing house that they sold the steer to, the processor who cut the steak and the consumer who ate it (stop farting!).  Farmers have almost no way to report such things and it would be an onerous bookkeeping requirement. Really what D’s hate about deregulation is that regulation is how govt controls people’s behavior.  Taxes too. Where oh where did the founding fathers come up with this idea that people should live the kind of life they want to live free of government controls?

            Meanwhile the R’s say that inflation is too much money chasing too few goods.  If the govt circulates 40% more money and things produced hardly change, expect 40% inflation over several years.  D’s counter, “You started it! Trump deficit spent $2T in 2020!"  True.  But that was to keep businesses solvent, people paid for lost wages during a pandemic we’ve not seen for 100 years—a national emergency. It had overwhelming bipartisan support. So having survived and swelled the money supply, it was time to step on the brakes in 2021, rather than add another $4T like Biden did. Put it this way.  I drive fast.  But when a corner comes up, I slow down.  Only a fool speeds up by double.

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Single Af-Am women are most motivated to vote pro-abortion

 

Biggest supporters of unlimited abortion are low income, single, Af-Am women.  They see it as their “out” for broken relationships. This is the group Democrats often take for granted but it is who D's mean when they say that abortion rights will be big in the midterms. 

    Studies of lower class women in European sectors (no race involved) show that the prime differences that keep these communities poor is low married rate and sporadic income.  Women will often take a stop-gap job to support a family at low income whereas men, with much pride and effort invested in a career, are loathe to take a minor or different job to simply support a family. They stay unemployed longer. Men grow up knowing they must work, whereas women see a career as something to choose.  (Maybe they will work, but maybe they will be a housewife or live on welfare.)  Men have no choice and their life is aimed at work.  Until they believe they have arrived as productive members , they are forever Peter Pans--boys.  Once they become warriors of some skill they are then valued members of a team. But golly, the world is a big place and they need a partner!  Only then is marriage something they desire.  Women, don’t see their entire identity tied up in career, so they will often take a small or temporary job, but men hold off until they get meaningful career work. 

    Women truly want love and a relationship. They want to be beautiful in someone's eyes. Throw in a great (but safe) adventure, and there's a wonderful life. 

            Many impoverished males are out of work a lot.  Those who are consistent providers are fought over by the women. Women poach on other women. Single motherhood and abortion abounds. This affects Af-Ams more than other minorities in USA, but is true of all poor people. Yet among Af-Am Christian women, abortion is unpopular as is sexual immorality. In middle class Af-Ams, fidelity is common and abortions are not.

            There is a lesson for Republicans in this.  Sunday mornings are the most segregated time in America.  Encourage your church to team in ministry with black churches as well as other minority congregations. Jobs, jobs, jobs is the theme for improving the poor side of town. (Trump's roaring economy won more male Af-Am voters.) Invite black middle class friends to enjoy things together. . Of course these things won’t come about in time for the midterm elections. But it will get us back to our Republican roots as a party with a plan of freedom, faith, family and free enterprise that extends to all Americans.The Grand Old Party of America’s Grand Old Ideas.