More election analysis by Schoen

 

ANOTHER VOTER & ELECTION ANALYSIS by Doug Schoen puts up some pretty interesting numbers. 3 groups of voters emerge.  Progressives are a quarter of the electorate. They are just what we think—media, much educated elites, some poor people who envision a utopian ideal of large government and controlling gov’t.  Of these 25% of the electorate, Democrats win 24 to 1.  Next are True Populists who are 34% of the total.  They believe in God-given rights and American exceptionalism (patriotic and nationalistic) 6 out of 10 of this group are Rs and ¾ of them vote R.  Hence R’s carry this 34% by 26 to 8 points. Their main issues are the things that attack individual freedom—bad economy, crime, uncontrolled borders. Semi-populists comprise 35%.  They aren’t so sure of God giving the rights or of being so patriotic, but tend to agree with the 3 issues that also resonate with populists.  R’s carry this 34% by 20 to 14 points.

            If you add the points R’s get 47 vs. D’s 46. But there is another 7% which voted 5 to 2 in favor of R’s.  Schoen says: Warning to Democrats, your wokeism and big govt leftism only appeals to 25% of the electorate.  Warning to R’s: You have won the true populists but not the semis. Many of these guys remain registered Ds and if the Ds ever discard wokeism, they are likely to win them back. 

            Here’s what I think it tells us.  The strong trend of existentialism leading many to question whether religion is of any value and the lack of civics education in schools makes semi-populists think the way they do.  For indeed, the notion of God-given rights is part of our  Declaration “We hold these truths…” and Constitution with its references to a Higher Power. Sans religious faith, people just think maybe we can make up the rules as we go along, we are not the sovereign state. If Rs are to gain this muddled middle, we need to demand we teach civics and redouble our attempts to reach those who just shrug away their existence.