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Saturday, October 1, 2022

What's happening with European conservatives winning?

 

Liz Truss replaced Johnson in UK and Giorgio Meloni elected in Italy. Both are conservatives stressing family, faith, and free enterprise—the Reagan and Trump Republican values.  This came just a week after the Sweden Democrats, another conservative party, suddenly became the 2nd largest party in Sweden and a year after Marine Le Pen, a conservative won 41% against Macron.  It’s a strong conservative trend sweeping Europe.  So why are Truss’s fellow British Tories wringing their hands and all over Europe they denounce faith-family-freedom parties as the latest Nazis? 

            Consider Brits first.  London dominates the UK with wages in the metro about $50,000 a year while $30,000 is common elsewhere.  Big international banks do this.  The Reaganomics method of getting USA out of stagflation was to lower regulations and taxes together with Fed tight money.  Tight money makes the dollar strong compared with other currencies, lowering costs of imports, reducing inflation.  De-regulation stimulates business, reducing their burden of compliance costs.  Tax cuts put money in pockets of consumers and businesses.  All 3 boost the supply side (production) of goods and services. Meanwhile tight money (high interest rates), while it fights business borrowing, tames inflation by reducing demand and overindulgence. But bankers hate tight money.  High interst makes them pay depositors more. A strong currency makes it more expensive for foreigners to borrow and harder for them to pay back as their own currency declines in value. The more the govt lowers taxes, the more people have to spend which makes the central bank (Bank of England, BOE) tighten.  What bankers love is for people to keep paying them back and lots of easy money to loan out.  Plus, as corporate lap dogs of the popular culture, they have bought into wokeism, climate change, etc. So when a conservative shows up spouting faith and family and freedom, it sounds like a moral threat. Thus half the Tories distrust Truss.

            The faith part of the equation is tiny in Britain where only 4% of the public goes to church even minimally.  But Italy has 40+% rate, like USA, the most Christian country in Europe. Italy has tons of debt, 150% of GDP, and the other EU countries are choking at her desire to cut taxes.  Italy, as part of EU is like a state in USA. A common euro is their currency. But what if a state cuts all its taxes and deficit spends? This inflates the euro. Worse,it draws businesses and more so with promise of de-regulation. [understand how regulated Europe is.  If you are a hog farmer and want to switch to cattle, you can’t simply do this as in USA. A county planning board will consider your application and maybe ten years later grant you a permit to change your farming.] Horrors! What would happen if French and Spanish companies fled to Italy.  To keep the euro where the EU wants it, a country that has run up debt (Italy) has tax policy somewhat dictated to keep that country from deficit spending (euro stable, they say). No consideration of how much lower taxes will spur the economy is accounted for. Nor is de-regulation. Meloni sees it more like good policy of TX and FL draw people away from CA and NY.  And faith!? Most of Europe is areligious, see themselves as citizens of the world (albeit with unique cultures), want lax borders, and have bought into the pop culture and wokeism.  Hence Meloni is a religious fanatic, a possible fascist and threat to the rest!

            Bottom line: people (voters) want jobs and a good economy.  But the bankers and neighbors want control.    

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