Trying to evaluate Trump

According to a Gallup poll, 75% of people think government is corrupt.  That question has been asked for about 50 years and this is the highest in its history.  82% on a Fox News poll say that the country is dominated by a political class who thinks solely to get re-elected. Now when you see such huge numbers it means that the opinion cuts across R’s, D’s and I’s, young and old, both sexes.  And now we know why Donald Trump is leading and Bernie Sanders is on the rise.  People have had it with professional politicians.

            Me too, but in a different way.  If you sign up to be a campaign manager, you get advise from the state party pros.  They tell you not to put “Republican” on your signs, avoid all issues until at least the end of September, and have your guy talk platitudes until then.  They want a popularity contest, a prom king or queen contest with lots of spending on ads that promote a nebulous brand identity. Ugh!  I understand that a label turns some people off, and if you release a detailed agenda, it only gives the opposition ammunition to pick your ideas apart.  But it is this mush-mouthed lack of forthrightness that drives the people batty.  The political advisors have cooked their own goose. 

            And it goes against what I am looking for.  People look for a lot of things.  I look for “leadership personality”.  In case that seems nebulous, let me explain.  Psychologists define leadership personality as a type.  A leader is the guy who comes into a room of people who are discouraged or argumentative. “Let’s look at the problem a new way,” he/she says, and then launches into a very convincing solution.  A plan lies behind the solution and you wind up thinking, “I want to work with this guy on this project!”   The leader has Vision, Passion, Clever ways to rethink old problems, is Persuasive, thinks how to get from point A to Z and a plan of things that must happen (Strategic thinker), has fun and loves the chase (Contagious Enthusiasm).  I saw several of these types in the candidates at Southern Republican Leadership Conference.  Best of show were Fiorina, Perry, Christie, Cruz and Walker.

            The problem with a pol who won’t tell you much about his plans is like a leader wannabe who has none. A guy who won’t tell you his Vision is likely to wander aimlessly just trying to please people. No Clever approach means he’s stuck in conventional thinking.  No Passion or Persuasion and he puts audiences to sleep. Extremely few folks have all these leadership traits so sometimes you have to compromise for some of them. 

            I get fooled.  I didn’t know George W. Bush was such a leader until 9/11.  That’s because he wasn’t such a great speaker and convincer.  He never reacted passionately to the attacks that he attracted.  But otherwise he was very adequate.  FDR was a perfect communicator, but lacked a plan.  TR and Reagan, whose radio address I rarely missed in the 70s, were classic leaders.  Even though they said RR wasn’t personally brilliant, he enlisted good people around him and used their expertise. TR was inexperienced and made up for it with frenetic effort.

            Comes now Trump.  He’s made a lot of money but I still want to hear his plans.  It is as if he has a standard political advisor who recognizes how to be nebulous in a new Trumpian way.  Lip off and have fun doing it.  That’s great for all the people who tuned in from Dancing with the Stars or CSI or House Hunters, but I still want to see his plans.  His foreign policy seems to be to stick it to China and Mexico.  He wants big tariffs and taxes on investments.  He doesn’t say how he will stop illegals from flying into USA.  He just says stuff like, “I’m going to be the best jobs President ever.” And he attacks all his rivals with impunity.  My questions are manifold.  Will he be able to get their support back having vilified them so badly?  How about 100% of the Republican base? Will he be able to work with Congress?  You can’t bully 535 people who all have large egos.  Does his foreign policy go farther than Mexico and China?  How would a Pres. Trump react to an ISIS that takes over Egypt or an Iran that takes over the Persian Gulf Oil? Does he have any vision for tax reform or is he just going to stick it to investors?  And how does he see the War on Christianity?

            I’m pretty intent on hearing this because USA is in dire shape.  Our economic growth has fallen over the debt cliff (and now joins southern Europe) in going from 65% to 107% of GDP.  For the first time in 400 years America has had more business closings than start-ups in a 5-year period—and foreign economists are stunned that USA has lost its touch in entrepreneurship.  The American Dream to become the kind of person you want is on life-support.  Social Security and Medicare are soon to go broke. We’ve pissed off every ally and we no longer threaten any enemy.  Russia claims the Arctic Sea as theirs.  China has a missle that kills ships  and can’t be shot down because it goes far faster than anything else in the world. Our families are collapsing and inner cities are rioting and our education is 28^th in the OECD.  This is not just another election season.  If we don’t get real leadership, we die.

            Meanwhile the formerly inattentive voters enjoy Trump because he is a big splash and so much unlike the usual politicians. Cool guy, reality TV, thinks the solution is to negotiate everything. But this sucker better get serious and specific fast or I won’t support him, no matter what, in 2016. We are at a crossroads.