Search This Blog

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Big climate discoveries in history


            I was thinking about the biggest discoveries of the past 30 years or so in our understanding of history.  I’m no archeologist but here’s my list of surprising finds of the recent era. 

            #1 is what happened to the Old Kingdom of Egypt.  It just disappeared for 150 years and then suddenly there were new pharaohs and a Middle Kingdom.  What happened?  If you go back to a textbook of about 1980 they tell you that there was a period of social unrest and chaos, rival families competed for the throne and there must have been wars.  Eventually a new dynasty arose and began to rule.  But no explanation.  They also did a huge expansion of canals and irrigation systems.  And they began to store large amounts of grain.  What we now realize is that the final Sahara Warming occurred about 2200 BC and silt studies of the Upper Nile show that a massive drought took place.  Think Larger than Dust Bowl sized drought that went on for at least 20 years.  Starvation indications in official records and city digs show that the nation was brought to desperation and chaos by just the simple lack of an annual flood.  The new pharaohs of the middle kingdom didn’t claim to have divine powers to make the annual flood of the Nile happen.  Smart move. This is like the time I was introduced to Jeff Buffalohead, Chairman of the Otoe tribe.  “Don’t call me chief!” he said.  “Chief means you own everything nobody else wants. Like Hey, Chief, your stray dog got in my trash! Are you going to clean it up.”

            #2 is the Mayas disappearance in the middle of the 800’s.  The great Mayan achievements of mathematics, astronomy and writing just disappeared.  And so did 90% of the population.  The people didn’t migrate elsewhere, as can be shown by both DNA sampling and demographic estimates. Their great cities have been surprisingly found, but these were mysteriously abandoned.  What happened the Mayas?  There were formerly dozens of theories about war and religious self-destruction and some sort of mystery diseases arriving on their shores.  But nothing fit until a Texas banker-turned-archeologist theorized that drought was the reason.  Indeed, he found many tell-tale signs like graneries emptied and abandoned, priests slaughtered by mobs, and cannibalism.  Then a geologic team found sediment cores from a swamp that had salt deposits that fit perfectly the timeline of the demise.  The swamp must have dried up extensively for at least a dozen years.  Other signs of ocean current changes that bring lesser droughts to the Yucatan were found as well.  So most of the Mayas disappeared from famine and drought, got into desperate fights that destroyed their civilization and left it to return into jungle. Of course, there are still about 1.5 million Maya remnant people in Guatemala today.  One Guatemalan guy I met said, “Yeah we were good in math but used a base 20 number system.  It was easy to count when people were barefoot.  And we had a zero, but kids hated it when they got that score on a test.”

            #3 is the Little Ice age of Europe.  From 1309 to 1324 it is estimated that temperatures declined by 10F from the warming in the 13th century. Famines and the bubonic plague occurred.  In sudden cooling changes rodents expand in population because their predators die while they successfully retreat to burrows and shelter.  So how do we know that climate really changed?  Prior to 1300, grapes were extensively grown in England and you can’t do that anymore. Grain crops failed in wet cold climates.  There was an Indonesian volcano which blew its head off just prior to 1300 and this may have started the cycle.  But the sun was the real culprit.  How do we know?  Chinese priests studied sunspots which were necessary to their religion.  Right on time in 1309 they recorded in alarm that the sunspots had gone away.  Indeed their records show a dearth of sunspots well into the 1600’s when Europe began to observe.  When the sun’s output slows, sunspots decline because they are like solar magnetic storms on the surface.  Less energy, fewer spots.  The sunspots returned about 1850, and our modern era of warming has progressed since then. And we note that before 1850, Dickens wrote about Christmas snow in Christmas Carol which took place in London.  Snow today is rare in London.  Which is why London has Arabs for immigrants instead of Lapps.  

            The barbarian invasions are now thought to have resulted as climate changed in central Asia and forest belts shifted north by as much as 300 miles.   Old territories of certain tribes came under dispute and the barbarians were forced or by opportunity migrated.  The best example is the Magyars or Hungarians, a tribe of Gemanic peoples who spoke a unique and thus traceable language.  As their territory warmed, they went from forest dwellers to plains riders and invaded Europe in the 900s. 

            Bottom line: Early man had a hard time adapting to climate changes.  None were due to any CO2 output from modern industrialization.  Which proves that the earth has climate fluctuations of a large order, all due to natural causes.

            But if you don’t believe this, then you have to believe in one of my favorite cartoons.  3 cavemen standing on a mountain top looking out at an enormous glacier field.  First guy says, “Dang, this is all melting!” Second guy: “It’s all our fault!” 3rd caveman: “We will just have to install socialism and tax the bejabbers out of ourselves.”

 

No comments:

Post a Comment