1973

1973.  I remember it well. Trying to finish a degree and programming with punched cards. I’d get tired of doing physics derivations that were 4 or 5 pages long and go over to the college library and read an economist I had just discovered, Milton Friedman, who wrote a monthly magazine article.  In the spring of 73 things were booming.  Farmers, flush with cash from Nixon opening up trade to Russia, bought all new pickups and tractors.  All their old equipment was circa 1948-52, the last time farming had been good. Food prices shot up 10% that spring and farm products rose at an annual rate of 50%.  All the other commodities then took off too.  Things looked oh so rosy. 8% annual growth!  Unemployment was 3.4%.(When Dems called Trump on his claim to lowest unemployment in history, they were actually correct until 2019 saw 3.3%) Nixon had lifted his price controls and people couldn’t get supplies.  Ponca City still has plumbing horror stories about copper-aluminum pipes that ruptured 15 years later , installed as a substitute in a copper shortage.  The Dems controlled Congress with a Veto-Proof Majority.  Nobody could stop their deficit spending. But Friedman was worried about Fed expansionism, keeping interest rates low.  He wanted us to watch the alternate money supply, M2 and adjust interest accordingly. And Congress was living on the edge, he insisted, with massive spending. Meanwhile, shortages of certain commodities started showing up.  Coffee went sky high. People substituted roasted barley and even milo for a true battery acid. Every product seemed rushed from the Chevy Vega to Disco music. Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Stayin’ alive! Today we are all enthused about the end of COVID and want to travel.  In 1973 everybody went traveling too while Nixon fought for his political life, vetoing nothing.  By the end of summer inflation had risen to 11% and continued at that pace until 1980 when Paul Volcker’s Fed made the Fed Discount rate 18% and prime rate was 21%.  Gasoline went from 35 cents to over a dollar in 7 years. People felt so hopeless that only Jessica Beale’s movie “Flash Dance” about hope in dying Pittsburgh was relief. The Fed got inflation under control at the cost of a horrid 4-year recession. But that wasn’t the only recession with inflation (stagflation) in the 70s.  The 1973-74 winter saw things collapse with OPEC withholding crude oil  and Gerald Ford could just kiss his idea about running again good-bye.  But the thing about Congress is that they didn’t recognize any problem with deficits. And the Fed was slow on the trigger to raise interest rates.  You’d hear Congressmen argue that Congress had always spent money before to no ill effect.  The Fed argued that their quarter point raises were what they had always done before and things always went back upright.  If inflation gets its claws into a demand-fueled , supply constrained economy, it doesn’t let loose easily, Friedman warned.  Indeed, labor unions wanting a 3% raise would tack on 5% for inflation and demand 8%.  Suppliers “charged ahead” to next year’s prices.  Everybody wound up speculating in natural resource stocks that bubbled and collapsed in 1979.

            Today, it seems so similar. Obstinate Dems and Fed, commodities going up fast, people hoping for a spending spree after they buy that new house.  Demand everywhere, supplies low, housing wild. Maybe gild the lily with  popcorn ceilings, a shake roof, and  paneling on that house.    

Walt Disney

Walt Disney was born in Chicago but the Disneys moved to Marceline, Missouri when he was age 4 where his father farmed with Walt’s uncle.  Two years after Walt started school, they moved again to Kansas City.  The family was poor.  He and brother Roy led a grueling life of paperboys both morning and evening distributing the Kansas City Star and KC Times. There was literally no time for play.  Many of the houses they delivered had rich residents, and one day another boy saw Walt throwing their paper.  He showed Walt his bicycle.  Walt’s eyes grew big and he could only dream of having toys and a bike. He was too painfully shy to talk. The other kid befriended him and began to put out toys near the door so that his chance friend, Walt, could pause for a few seconds and admire the forbidden toys, try one or two, and fantasize.

            Walt and Roy didn’t get very good grades in school because they were tired.  But Walt loved to draw, had a talent for it, and studied art in the upper grades. The family was strictly Protestant and patriotic.   He lied about his age in 1918 and got into the army but the war was over by the time he got to France.  He drove an ambulance. His hastily drawn cartoons were printed in “Stars and Stripes.”  Back home after the war, he got work at a commercial art studio, then at a film animation company.  He started his own studio which promptly went bankrupt like those prior companies.  But he had produced his first film, a 12 minute animation, Alice’s Adventure in Wonderland.  In 1923, He and Roy moved to Los Angeles, eventually opening up a studio for cartooning.  There they created Mickey Mouse.

            His humble character and unswerving Protestantism (We are Saints and Sinners: Walt chain-smoked and drank) led him to produce not only comedy but moral plays, rich with fantasy. As a child he loved Aesop’s Fables. As a filmmaker, he made delightful anthropomorphic animals.  Employing a separate script department they wrote family-oriented, optimistic screenplays with lessons of life.  And during the hard times of the 1930’s these were keenly accepted.  Mickey Mouse was introduced as Steamboat Willie, a character always getting into a scrape but escaping harm by doing right.  The Three Little Pigs depicted pigs who worked hard in defiance of adversity taunting a Big Bad Wolf (the Depression).  Snow White shows that a true princess’s character is her real beauty as she teams with little people who work diligently. Pinocchio illustrates that lies get you in trouble but truth wins. 

            When labor costs after WW II made cartoon animation expensive, Disney started doing nature documentaries and live action pictures.  Disney recognized the potential of television as well.  But deep down inside Walt was still the kid who’d had no toys but lots of fantasies.  So in 1951 he began plans for a grandiose toy explosion in Disneyland amusement park. Main Street was patterned after his memories of Marceline, Walt’s fascination with trains produced a train that ran through the park.  Disneyland soon became a mecca for tourists from all over the world.  And the lessons-on-life films continued. Lady and the Tramp (sowing your oats is fun but finding a partner, doing your duty bravely even when unappreciated, is the greater joy), Song of the South (even clever people do very stupid things and get stuck, but you can still win), and Bambi (growing up is scary and full of scars, but nobility awaits in real adulthood).  Critics have said that Walt Disney’s films indoctrinated the world with American Protestant values.  Perhaps, but Christianity seems to have a global resonance. Maybe it is an unusual way for Jesus Christ to get a foot in their door. Oh, and don’t forget to be the other kid who shared his toys with the paperboy.  You never know who he might grow up to be.

                                     

Stuff the news media should tell us

I suspect that a major reason the media doesn’t give oft-times vital information, is because they have such short time frames to write or speak and many lack analytical skills.  Years ago, I cashed in a few frequent flier points to sit 1^st class and I sat down next to Art Linkletter, age 90 at the time.  He told me exactly this. Here’s more stuff…

1.     China was 2% of world's manufacturing in 1991 but is 19% today. 1/5 of US middleclass job loss is due to this. Workers are far less willing to move today (loss of home value) or re-educate (US stresses 4 year degrees which is huge down time to get a bachelors) Therefore, many try to get on disability, now 5% of 25-64 yr. olds. Food stamps has gone from 17M in 2000 to 48M today.

2.     2.6M die each year, most by health conditions. 98K die from medical mistakes, 100K from falls and accidents, 38K drug overdoses, 30K vehicle accidents.  There are only 700 deaths per year from gun accidents, but 13,000 from gun crime.  Cocaine usage fell by half in the last 10 years but heroin has gone up 80%. Marijuana abuse in Colorado has increased by 25% among the elderly since they passed legalization.

3.     It’s the federal gov’t people are fed up with.  47% of voters this fall thought Fed Gov’t is too powerful; 61% think states should be able to opt out of fed mandates and programs if fed doesn’t pay for them. Only 26% want federal funding of elections.

4.     Since 70s, land temperature readings have gone 1.5 degrees higher, but 25degrees higher since 15,000 BC. At 10,800 BC was a -15 degree re-cooling called Younger Dryas that lasted 1300 years, probably due to changed ocean circulation. Then two Sahara warmings @ 4400BC and 2200BC each lasting 150  years. (disputed causes) A  medieval warming 850-1300AD by 5 degrees, then a Little Ice Age (-8 degrees) 1309-1850 AD caused by lower solar output—known from sunspot occurance) Interglacial periods last 12,000-28,000 years. 39% of climatologists recently said they were convinced of manmade warming.

5.     In 1850, 80% of black children slaves lived with BOTH parents and this continued to 1950.  14% out-of-wedlock rate of 1950 has gone to 70% today. 7000 of 13,000 murders are committed by Af-Am who are 13% population. Half of 12^th graders function at 6^th grade. Teen unemployment was LESS than for whites in 1950s but is now 47%.  Black kids need Dads!  Take an unguided one under your wing, guys!

6.     Oklahoma Democrat vs. R’s in 1976 was 78% to 22% (don’t have statistics on Indies). 2016, 40 years later it is 41.5% to 45.5% in favor of R’s.  The use of marketing surveys with smart phone techniques is having a big impact on big elections—people reminding like-minded people to vote—Obama technique pioneered in 2008. Media doesn’t want you to know this. It circumvents them.

7.     Single mom, two kids (SM2K) can get assistance from TANF,WIC, Food stamps, Sect. 8 housing, and Medicaid, plus other state programs. If you make nothing $1500 a month aid is typical even in MS and AR when state is tightfisted. Earned Income Tax Credit declines as you make more than $9600 and you lose TANF.  At about 23K you lose food stamps and housing asst. Bottom line, most, but not all SM2Ks make $1500-$2000 per month no matter how poor they are.

8.     7% of men are molested sexually as kids.  46% of gay males were; 22% of gay women. Prison surveys show 86% of child molesters are gay/bi. 1.6% of population is gay; 0.7% bi—same as it has been for the last century.

9.     Save up.  30% of seniors >55 have no savings and 26% have less than $50K (9 months in nursing home).  ¼ living on retirement SS have only that. (SS retirement avg benefit is $1600/month)

10.  Racism is rare. In 1950 20% thought interracial marriage was okay.  Today it’s 90%.  Of the 10% who don’t, 2/3 cited no personal dislike but hardship on children or the couple.  That fits with 12 studies of Caucasian Americans over the last 20 years thought to be reputable—true racists are <3 3="" nbsp="" o:p="" of="" population.="" total.="">

Well, enough!  Don’t get me going on Obamacare, Islam, Taxation or Energy.  I can’t shut up.

Perplexing things

At sundry times I have not been able to figure out why people think like they do.  The latest is this Lochte controversy. I admit I don’t know all that went on, nonetheless, I can’t figure out why no one holds Brazil responsible.   Suppose I was still in business and I ran a gas station.  You came into my gas station, blasted out of your mind, causing trouble, tearing stuff up—worse than anyone alleges in the Lochte incident.  But if I pulled a gun on you, do you think the police would lock me up or you? Brandishing a gun can still be a felony charge in most states.  Apparently not in Brazil.  Moreover, the Brazilian government now wants Lochte to pay $47,000 to avoid charges??? Isn’t it time someone told Rio to go to hell?  And take all those Tijuana operators with them.

            Nobody was more clever about feeling our pain that Bill Clinton.  When disaster happens, it is up to the state to clean up.  We never see federal regular Army troops taking charge.  FEMA is only a loan/payment agency.  Governors used to routinely ask Presidents to not come to a disaster area immediately because it causes too much disruption of responders.  That’s why W. just flew over Katrina in a plane.  But Slick Willie transposed the governor’s function of showing up at a disaster into the Presidency and won huge acclaim for it.  So Trump went to Louisiana and scored a big Clinton-like win.  Obama is taking the guff for golfing.  But given that Bill is married to Hill, why does no one ask where she was?  Where was Slick’s wife?

            We have two candidates who are 69 and 70 years old.  Only half of all Americans live to age 65. Avg. age at death is 78. Reagan was 69 and everybody was concerned about his health, which turned out to be robust with an active lifestyle and proper eating. Still, he had Alzheimers within 4 years of serving.  8 of 44 Presidents have served because of death of the former guy. Why does no one ask about Trump or Hillary Health? And then KFC announced they are making sunscreen that smells like fried chicken.  Where can I get this?  If you’ve ever tried to walk houses campaigning and met vicious dogs you might come to realize that if you eat a nice greasy burger, they tend to start wagging tails and licking hands.  I want to find that KFC sunscreen!

            Why is everybody, and I mean everybody, making bacon cheeseburgers with jalapenos?  Don’t get me wrong.  I love bacon.  But the strong flavor overwhelms the sandwich.  Add jalapenos and you can’t taste beef anymore.  Is this what passes for gourmet?  Whatever happened to charbroiling, mushroom-swiss, bleu cheese, and carmelized onions?  Is every taste a desire for bacon and peppers?  But then I was also the guy who wondered why the burger joints didn’t offer alternatives to French fries like Wendy’s.  Don’t tell me nobody is interested.

            Given that the research of the last 15 years points to the rarity of an earth-like planet nearby, why does everyone explain anything they can’t understand as caused by aliens.  If something in history is a mystery, it must have been intervention by mysterious aliens.  If a mystery in science, maybe it’s aliens.  Somebody figured-out something new, maybe he was helped by aliens.  Isn’t this the same baloney that people used to think about leprechauns, ogres, trolls and fairies?  By golly, I think the pyramids were built by fairies.  With tin-foil hats.

            Given that ISIS and all sorts of Islamists would love to cripple USA and that hundreds of thousands of illegals have crossed our borders in the last ten years, why aren’t we worried about terrorism cells?  Why doesn’t some pop-culture saavy network adopt this as a theme—how to protect yourself in time of terror emergency?  If one of those mideastern countries had an atomic weapon and medium range missle launcher and didn’t want to get caught, they would park a ship offshore, launch the missle at the center of our country, detonate in the atmosphere (doesn’t take any guidance system) and cause an EMP explosion that would destroy virtually every computer network in America—cars couldn’t operate, electrical grid would go down, no internet or phones.  The same effect would happen if a large solar flare were to erupt.  One does every hundred years.  Why does no one plan for this?

            My conclusion therefore is that people don’t like to think about bad things.  They love the familiar and status quo.  You can’t control Brazil or a solar flare. They just don’t want to think about anything that challenges their notions.