Geezer economy

 

GEEZER ECONOMY  Economists are now worried about world population declining. Did I not try to tell people about this?!  USA, since 1973 has done about 64 million abortions.  Had these been given birth, we’d have enough to fill the gap in labor force so that Social Security would survive. Future History book chapter: "Social Security died because they wanted a BMW instead". The entire rich world is in trouble with pensions.  Currently 3 people from working age to 64 support 1 person over 65.  By 2050 it will be 2:1. And it doesn’t just effect our own ponzi-scheme Social Security.  Retired folks support themselves on savings which will invest in weaker companies due to the labor shortage.  And then who supports the government if it has far less taxes?  (Well, you know what they will do!)

In 2000 the world’s fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman (population sustainability rate = 2.1) Today it is 2.3 and falling.  The 15 largest countries by GDP all have negative replacement rates.  This includes India and China and comprises 3/8 of world population. Ain’t just Italy and Japan anymore.

Here’s the really bad news.  Countries full of elderly have less enterprising young people comfortable with taking risks.  That is, productivity growth slows. If you are retired, that’s your investments. Next politics gets ossified.  Old Farts don’t spend much as consumers and benefit less when economies thrive.  They are less likely to promote pro-growth policies.  The impulse of liberals to encourage immigration sounds helpful, but if immigrants aren’t screened for the 3 magic attributes—work,education, and family/faith—they are a drag on the system, not a benefit. Thus it is predicted that by 2050 there will be a dearth of young educated workers, especially in places like USA which doesn’t do well with bottom-up education.  And pro-family policies have proven little help when family/faith is declining. Fewer babies, less well nurtured, means less human genius.  What then?  A.I. to rule us? I guess if you get old and want to stay at  home but there’s no at-home nursing available, at least that AI robot won’t steal your china and jewelry, right?  Right?