I’ve been watching the coronavirus Covid19
news like everybody but the news coverage has been unreal. Gloom and doom and we’re all going to die! 5
weeks ago it was indeed quite uncertain and dumb me, thought it might be time
to stock our pantry in case a pandemic caused disruption. Spent $200 at Sams I probably didn’t need
to. But then I learned ‘coronavirus’ is
the name for the common cold. This new
strain will be hard on us since no one has immunity, but the body works fast
and we survive. Then someone in the media figured out it was a great new
opening for the Democrats to attack Trump and so they have been piping this
thing like it was Armageddon. (And of course the Prez hasn’t handled it right.)
The Republican State Committeman part of me gets frustrated. The teeth-grinding side of politics is when
your opponent sneaks a win by accusing you of something that looks circumstantial
or that is not at all true, but by repetition or some other skullduggery,
manages to fool some of the people some of the time. Well, this time they did it big. When China closed the city of Wuhan and some
of the factories and told all the people to quarantine, (That is what a
dictatorship does), it was represented as news that this might happen
everywhere-- the only hope to save humanity.
Side Effect: it kills the economy! So the stock market plunged in
panic. The media moved in for the kill,
spotting things Trump said that weren’t exactly what his experts were saying
and proclaiming that, therefore, we had no idea how to solve this. Then the talking heads called for a “cure”. Of course with a virus there is no such
thing. And so the Task Force strove to
tell us that it was going to get worse before it was going to get better and we’d
eventually have vaccine. Don’t get on a cruise.
More panic and more market crash and more glee by the media and D’s
trying to take down Trump. USA had 1 million test kits and 8 million would be
produced the next week. But the Dems
glomed onto this with Biden and Bernie demanding that everyone in the USA Had a
Right to be tested any time they wanted to and people, thinking that they
couldn’t even find out if they had it, bought all the darned toilet paper and cleaning fluids. Then some knothead in the NBA was
phoo-phooing the coronavirus and swiped his hands over all the mics of the
media in a presser. Luck would have it,
next day he tested positive. Sports world went zonkers, cancelled all the fans
and then the games and so now ESPN looks like endless sports commentary about
coronavirus and poker competitons. Have
we gone bat guano insane?
Years before I got involved in
politics, I was a saver and investor, even though I kept getting in trouble
financially and draining my savings. But
you learn skills. There are times when
the market has gone too high with Tulip Mania or worse, a Credit Crisis. There are a few times when it just panics for
no worthy reason, as in 1987 and now. Makes
a comeback easily. So I was watching all last year as stock prices rose
thinking there has to be an end at some point.
When the price to earnings ratio gets above 20 that is warning of price
too high. (and when it goes down to 12
then it is BUY BABY BUY!!) January, the average P/E had gone to 19.5, yet US personal
savings rate is highest it has been historically and lowest personal debt. People are in good shape, a total flip from
2007 when everybody was in la-la-land about their houses. They’ve learned a
hard lesson. But if we had a recession,
they would be in pretty fair shape. Yesterday the market plunged hideously
again, Democrats all joyously cheering the news. Those devils have no concern whatsoever for
your life savings. They would cheer
complete demise of the US economy if they could get into power by it. But now
the average P/E is down to 14. Trump has
a new conference today. He is declaring
a National Emergency. More bad
news. Yet, strangely, the market kept
going up. There is an old saying, ”A
market that neglects bad news is destined to go higher.” I called my broker.
My broker is my son, a 20-year
veteran certified financial planner. He’s been harried by clients full of worry
and he came home last night, wife says, you haven’t watched TV for 2
weeks. So he sat down and tuned CNN and
Rachel Madcow. “I could’ve slit my
wrists!” he said. “It was that gloom and
doom, we’re all going to die.” He told about younger brokers worried what to
tell their clients. They haven’t been
through this sort of crash. He had sage
words. Prices after a crash are cheap. The deeper you push a beech ball into the
water, the more force it wants to rise.
Well, your father is aching to put some of his bond money in stocks, I
laughed. And if the average P/E goes
down with another rough day, I’m going to be cagey as a loon to buy stocks. One gets about one chance per generation to
see this sort of idiocy--empty shelves, no sports, market crashing over
nothing, daily press conferences--and all because of a new strain of the common
cold? Buy on the cannons!
Bottom line, it is fulfilling to see
your side win politically. Nice to make
money. But when you have a chance to
make a killing off the lunacy of the Dem Fools…
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