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Sunday, September 28, 2014

Senate Looking good!

October 1 around the corner and the R's are looking good to take the Senate by a squeaker.  Daines in MT, Capito in WV, and Rounds in SD have double digit leads.  Cassidy leads Landrieu in LA 51-38 but in Louisiana's all comers style election these two will probably meet in a Dec. runoff.  Cotton leads Pryor 43-38 in AR.  (And when a challenger leads an incumbent with a lot of undecided, the undecided usually go 3:1 for the challenger.  Pryor is toast.) 
     That's 5 pickups.  Now in KS the race between Roberts and Orman is unclear.  Roberts may pull it off, but let's say for argument sake he doesn't.  That is a loss of 1 and so there are 4 net pickups for the R's.  It gets better.
     In AK the R, Sullivan has an edge or incumbent D, Begich in the last three polls.  Polls are hard in AK because of the vast distances and unknown turnout.  So this one is leaning R.  CO recent polls show Gardner leading by a slim two points.  But this is leaning R since challengers usually pick up undecided.  If R's win these two states, that makes their net +6 and they take the Senate. 
    And Iowa is a dead heat.  Could be another pickup.  No more Harkin barkin'.  R's just have to kiss the ethanol stone while lying on their back.
    Plus the chancy states for R's look like they are holding on.  McConnell has 5 point lead in KY because he has bludgeoned his challenger with Obama's coal policies.  GA's Perdue looks like he is now 4 points ahead of Nunn, the Dem.  Again, the R's hold this seat.  Meanwhile NH and NC look like Dems will hold these two by a small margin.  MI goes Dem but it was before. 
    One theory of late election swings say that undecideds often go with the flow or "wave" which would be Republican.  Another says that the undecideds go with or against a Prez depending on his poll numbers.  R's win this again.  We will just have to wait and see.

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