Have you done the math?

I have been hearing all sorts of political angles on immigration reform.  Hannity had Sen. Jeff Sessions on yesterday and he wants absolutely no part of any kind of reform.  Ditto Corker of Tennessee.  But then Limbaugh interviewed Rubio and had a lot of hard questions which Rubio fielded very well, saying that both a secure border and secure Visa management is a must before any pathway to citizenship can take place. And he admits that, done for purely political strategy, reform is likely to hurt Republicans.  Plus you have to worry about Obama cooking the books to claim border is under control when it isn’t.

            I did the math on it.  DHS claims there are 11.1 million illegals.  Let’s say that we can secure our present border problem.  Rubio wants ¼ as many entering but that is still 200,000 a year and I’d like to see numbers like 25,000 a year before we pronounce  the problem solved.  But then where do 11.1 million new citizens leave the Republicans?  Well, consider that about half are working age—16—so slightly fewer are voting age.  But then if you analyze Hispanic voting among citizens today, you discover that only 44% vote.  So the 11.1 million suddenly becomes about 2.5 million actual voters.  If they go 2:1 Democrat, that is a net loss of about 800,000 votes nationwide.  Compared with 138 million votes cast by the rest of us, or 0.6%.  Another way to look at this is that while Hispanics make up 11% of US population, they comprise only 7% of voters—10 million.  Adding another 2.5 million would up the 7% to about 9%.  But then the margin of Democrat gain is 1/3 of this or again 0.6%.  This might make a difference in a very close Kennedy-Nixon contest, but not in most elections.

            The next thing to think about is how loyal these first generation immigrants will be to the Democrats.  In a slack economy, they are least employable due to language and education deficiencies.  Thus they go on welfare, run by those air-headed states who don’t forbid illegals from getting freebies.  But states are running out of money, Hispanics like to work, and by second generation, Hispanics vote only 55% Democrat.  Within 10 years of entry into USA only 68% remain Catholic.  Evidently becoming an American encourages adjustment of thinking.  And that is what Rubio is counting on, ten years after borders close when those folks become citizens.  If the R’s play their cards right, they have a good chance of winning like they do in New Mexico where 40% of the population are Hispanos and long time citizens. 

 

    The jury is still out, but I think there is the possibility of a reform bill if R's in House can make some reasonable demands for structure.