Cardinal Math

Like Math? Here's a number sequence and you tell me the next number. 26,30,31,34,42,43,44,46,64,67,68,81,82,85,87,4,6,?
Answer: 11. These are the years that the Cardinals have won the pennant.
We were sitting and watching the game last night when the fifth inning ended with the Cards ahead by 5 runs. Now the way I figure it, teams score an average of 4.5 runs per game or .5 runs per inning. So the probability of scoring a run in any given inning is 0.5. The probability of 2 runs is 0.25, etc. This approximately jives with my sense that if you go into the ninth with a 1 run lead, you have at least a 50% chance of winning --or better if your closer has an ERA much less than 4.50. So then you calculate what is the probability of the Brewers scoring 5 runs in 4 innings? It's over one in thirty. But of course, this isn't dynamic. It assumes the Redbirds won't score again. It assumes that in such a crucial game the Birds won't put in an outstanding pitcher or two with an ERA of about 2.
So I turned to her and said, "I think we got 'em." As it turned out, the Cardinals scored again and the Brewers chances got even worse. Redbirds win. Pennant #18.
I once read about the life of Branch Rickey, the genius general manager of the Cardinals in 1918 who put together the beginning of this very successful baseball team. He was listening-in as the manager dismissed a young man from spring training tryouts. He told the kid to get some muscle on his bones, because despite his fielding prowess, he just didn't have much power in his hitting. The following fall, the kid showed up at the team offices asking if he could try out in spring training again. He was 40 pounds heavier and all rock solid muscle. The manager remember him, young guy by the name of Roger Hornsby. "What have you been doing!!" Rog just shrugged and said he was working on the farm. Rickey was given pause. He thought about how fortunate the team was to run into this kid again. What if they would spend a little money to buy some small town minor league teams and have scouts fan out across the countryside to locate talent, offer a contract to play ball on the minor league outfit and put the young men through training. Call it the 'farm system', ala Hornsby. Since you could buy a minor league team for about $6-8000, about what you'd pay a very good player per year, Rickey thought that if each of about 4 teams could produce a good player from the hinterlands, the purchase would pay for itself in a year. And the rest, as they say is history.
Next, Rickey gave some thought to how to promote his team. St. Louis has another major league team and was somewhat distant to the other teams being the westernmost club. There was a new thing called radio but in 1918 no one understood very well how it could make money. One idea was to get people to listen so that a company could sell more radios. A better idea was to get programming from civic activities and have advertizing sponsors. So radio stations would play, say, an opera that was performing locally. Rickey thought the stuff being done was pitiful and thought baseball would be much better if you could locate a good person to tell the 'game story' as it was being played. And what a perfect way to get the word out, way out West, about the Cards. So while many teams signed-on 2 or 3 radio stations in the town where they played, Rickey assembled an empire of 108 stations throughout the West and South. The cost was so minor it provided a return of almost 200%. Pretty good math, eh? The rise of Cardinal baseball caused the early success of many radio stations beyond the eastern seaboard, made fans in Tennessee lust to go to St. Louis for a game, and made every kid in America seem to want to play for the Redbirds. And started a grand tradition of radio play-by-play announcers--Dizzy Dean, Harry Carey, Jack Buck, Mike Shannon. Oh, and then there was that aggressive beer company in St. Louis who delivered fresh beer quickly by teamsters who saw a perfect match for Anheiser-Busch and a baseball team.
As Rickey's math grew successful, so did the Cardinal's math. In 1903, the team had the lowest winning percentage, .314 in their history, but 1906 was even worse with the team finishing 63 games behind the pennant winners. But from '26 to '46, the Cards won 8 times.
My grandfather said it was a great escape when the country needed an escape. You could come home dehydrated and dirty, having watched the grasshoppers eat your crop. The kids could be fighting , your wife could chew you out and the dog could bite you--but if the Cards won, it was a net positive day. Good math.
Note from Oct. 28--tonight at end of inning 7 Cards were ahead by 4. So with two innings to play the probability is 1/2times1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2 =1/16 but then there are two innings so it is 2/16 or one chance in 8. Result was Cards won as predicted. Dotel and Motte pitched and each had an ERA for the Series of slightly over 1. Hence the Rangers were really cooked! The squirrel was spotted crawling around on the scoreboard getting ready to celebrate. Congratulations, Redbirds!