The real scoop on the election

 

THE ELECTION BY THE NUMBERS is an article by Jeffery Anderson  in City Journal this weekend.  In it he notes exit polls (polling after people come out of the voting locations).  I summarize. Asked their main reason for voting, 32% said to “oppose” Biden, 28% in opposition to Trump. This is 2/3 of the voters and results are a dead heat between a President and a former defeated candidate. Unprecedented—no former election had massive voters voting against a former President. Trump brings out opposition. Abortion was not much of a factor (10%).  But Rs won the issue with more R voters among those who oppose abortion and those who have less conviction and even support some abortions. Only a few diehard pro-abortion voters supported Democrats.  Republicans won the popular vote by 4%.  So why did the Rs lose close races and gain just a few House seats (8-12 at this point)? 

Mail-in voting has not increased voting much among the formerly disengaged. Total votes in 2022 is slightly less than in 2018. (Not far higher as has been the talk) Nor can mail-ins explain why Hassan won by 9 points in NH, a state with only election day voting.

Redistricting was heavy in D states but that can’t explain why close Senate races (<10% margins), Rs lost 4 out of 7, and Governor races they lost 7 out of 9. Those are statewide races. Rs out-mobilized 36% to 33% of total voters.

But Dems won Independents 49% to 47%. Part of the problem in Rs losing tight races.

Candidate quality/extremist Republicans did not show up in exit polliing Only Blacke Masters race in AZ was he considered too extreme. Generic polling “Is either party too extreme? Which one?” Rs=39%, Ds=38%.

But Candidate Resumes is a likely factor in tight races.  17 close Senate and Gov races were single digit wins. All l17 Dems had held previous office from a statewide election or had been in state offices or Congress. Only 7 Rs had been. People expect experience in higher govt offices. Before Trump, only one  President was elected that did not hold a Senate, VP, or cabinet position.  That one exception is Lincoln who had, in fact been a congressman.

Moderate establishment candidates did poorly. This may be explained by the partisan nature of the voters these days.

More surprises? 74% are dissatisfied with both parties. 76% say we are on the wrong track. 52% “aren’t very confident” that their state elections are fair and accurate.  Rs got 39% of Hispanic voters and 14% of Af-Americans, equal to of higher than even in 2020. Rs won 7% margins in married men, married women, and single men, but lost single women by 37%. Ds won urbans by +17% and Rs won rural by +29% and suburbs by +6%.  The only guy who scored almost complete wins was DeSantis who won urbans and Hispanics by 18% and lost single women by only 1 point.

Bottom line seems to be that citizens are looking for genuine leaders who are up to the challenges present and coming, and not finding much of anyone.  Expect no party to hoist its flag for long if they can’t come up with these people.