Changes in political demographics

 

Why are more Af-Ams and Hispanics voting R? It’s important to note this because there is a general stupidity pitfall in  politics.  After one party or the other wins big, they think that all the public has changed their mind and agrees with them.  That just sets you up for set-back in the next election.  Rs sometimes think that a win immediately gives them the initiative to pass no abortions or change education.  But these are deeply divisive issues in which tweaking is often a better stategy than going fanatic.  While I grieve deeply over abortion and am angered and insulted over educrats and bad schools, almost half of the rest of the population that disagrees.

            Latinos and Af-Ams are working more in the last few Trump years. Here’s # of employed men per 100 women.

Group   1980    1990     2000     2010     2020

Caucas.  130     130       125       110       102

Asian       120    140       110       100       100

Hispanic  98      125       115       105       112

Af-Am      58      55         50         50         56

Note historic trend is decline but 2020 changed for Af and Latinos. Men mature wanting to be a skilled part of a team or The Best or to go where no man has ever gone. We want to Measure Up.  It’s part of our DNA.  When you work you get angry about somebody taking away your hard-won earnings and Rs stand for lower taxes, less regulations, smaller govt.  The turn of the 20^th century days of businesses exploiting voiceless workers once inflamed men. But this is no longer driving men to unionize with zeal like they did 100 years ago or even 50. So it is Af and Latino men who are doing the most switching of parties.

            Secondly, we intermarry.  In 1950 1% of Af-Ams and 10% of Asians intermarried.  Today it is 20% of Af-Ams and 50% of Asians.  Marry into a family of differing ideas and you start picking up some of their reasoning.

            Thirdly, Money.  62% of those who make $500K or more a year vote D.  65% of those who make less than $100K vote R. I first began to notice this “flip” of income demographics around 2000.  As a landlord who had about 20 apartments, I would talk to the tenants, many of whom make under $1500 per month and receive some forms of welfare and Medicaid.  Bottom line: almost all of them had bigger dreams and little sideline cash businesses to make enough to live better (trading comic books or baseball cards, driving as a sub taxi-cab driver, arts and crafts, etc.) And about half had very conservative attitudes, like the disabled woman who watched FOX non-stop, the farm wife who was living on minimum social security and Medicaid but still had rural values, the junk dealer looking for scrap iron and aluminum.  Many of the poor are minorities or lacking education yet they have aspirations for their kids.

            Fourth, they are employed by small biz.  Small business provides 70% of the new jobs and many can only afford low wages and the company truck is rusty.  You work closely with a boss and you empathize with his stuggles with bankers, code enforcers, health departments, and all the gov’t bureaucrats. 

            Fifth, Christianity.  If you feel like an oddball, or have experienced racism or are sadly poor, the promise of a close relationship with God that comes via Jesus Christ is a True Hope. Hispanics are all about faith, family and freedom and many church-going blacks are too.  46% of all Rs go to church regularly.  46% of all Ds never go to church. 63% of Americans are uneasy with social changes according to Gallup and Rs are the party of social issues. 83% of active Christians vote R. (By the way, 6-8% of media are church attenders)

            Certain issues resonate with minorities.  The border and illegals splits Hispanics.  Some see relatives and friends from the south coming in illegally but others are pissed by the cartels setting up in their community, gangs tempting their kids, and suffering of fellow Latinos along the Rio Grande having to put up with the onslaught. Latinos overwhelmingly favor good border policy and a reasonable immigration reform.Afro Americans are ticked over criminals in their midst, and the burning down of their neighbors businesses in black districts.  Crime is a very winning issue for Rs. Inflation is too which affects the poor disproportionately.

           Democrats hold strongly to a strategy of calling racism. 94% agreed with a statement by a major polling firm that "racism is built into our society," rather than "racism comes from racist individuals rather than society and institutions. Hispanics agreed 58% with the first and 36% with the second. 70% Hispanics agreed with "America is the greatest country in the world." while Dems only 19% agreed and 66% strongly disagreed. Hispanics cite Inflation/economy as their top issue by 61% and it is just a 5 percenter among Dems. Only 20% of Hispanics call themselves liberal but 35% say they are conservatives and 45% are moderates.

            Foreign policy? Farm policy?  Gun rights? Property Rights? States rights? Financial policy? All are good R issues but they affect growth in minority groups to a far lesser degree.  If we wish to grow the party, we need to realize that special emphasis is part of politics. But if the Democrats think they have a lock on minorities by there incessant racism charges, they got another thing coming.