Elections in December?

 

We should move election day to the first Tuesday in December. Then it would remind many that while your politician may be born in Scranton and rise to be President, we have a King who was born manure-floored sheep stye and placed in a manger.  Who then rose from the dead to rule over all the physical universe. Top that, if you dare.

            And it was this singular man and His life that caused Jefferson, with at least 3 dozen men looking over his shoulder to pen the Declaration of Independence.  That famous line about all men being created equal was lifted almost verbatim from John Locke, the Father of Modern Psychology who considered what kind of government men would truly love and prosper under in his Two Treatises on Government. A Christian author, Locke resonated with the Americans who had just undergone an enormous religious revival, the Great Awakening.  We were born of Judeo-Christian ethic that also accepts the non-believer to “live life as you want to live it,” within the bounds of our social contract, with self-evident rights.

            “That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.” This rules out a theocracy of priests, nor divine right of Kings or a a power-elite who refuse to be questioned.  Instead it is a system where the people governed grant power to their government.  We the People give consent.  It is not God over Government over People, but God over People over Government. How does this square with the Almighty?  Well, if God gives some person a mission in life, who can abort such a mission without ultimate judgment from God?  And none of us knows the heart of another, where the mission lies. Voting in December would remind us of something. The guy born in the manger, the One who said, ”Fear not for I have redeemed you; I have called  you by name, you are Mine.” gave us the love to extend those rights to all who live in our country. Some thought to refuse those inalienable rights to slaves, some thought Native Americans were savages and should be excluded as well.  Republicans fought them both times.  Republicans fight again to preserve religious liberty, free uncensored speech without woke demands, right to bear arms, property stewardship with limits on government unreasonable surveillance and seizure, due process of law, rights reserved to the states and the people, a limited government, free enterprise and a free people.

            Whether a December voting date would remind us of these core principles is open for debate.  Certainly if our schools taught them, it would make some sense.  Like Dorothy in Wizard of Oz, some of us wonder if some of the rest of America lives in a crazy dream world such that even a 12 year old girl can figure out won't work.

The real scoop on the election

 

THE ELECTION BY THE NUMBERS is an article by Jeffery Anderson  in City Journal this weekend.  In it he notes exit polls (polling after people come out of the voting locations).  I summarize. Asked their main reason for voting, 32% said to “oppose” Biden, 28% in opposition to Trump. This is 2/3 of the voters and results are a dead heat between a President and a former defeated candidate. Unprecedented—no former election had massive voters voting against a former President. Trump brings out opposition. Abortion was not much of a factor (10%).  But Rs won the issue with more R voters among those who oppose abortion and those who have less conviction and even support some abortions. Only a few diehard pro-abortion voters supported Democrats.  Republicans won the popular vote by 4%.  So why did the Rs lose close races and gain just a few House seats (8-12 at this point)? 

Mail-in voting has not increased voting much among the formerly disengaged. Total votes in 2022 is slightly less than in 2018. (Not far higher as has been the talk) Nor can mail-ins explain why Hassan won by 9 points in NH, a state with only election day voting.

Redistricting was heavy in D states but that can’t explain why close Senate races (<10% margins), Rs lost 4 out of 7, and Governor races they lost 7 out of 9. Those are statewide races. Rs out-mobilized 36% to 33% of total voters.

But Dems won Independents 49% to 47%. Part of the problem in Rs losing tight races.

Candidate quality/extremist Republicans did not show up in exit polliing Only Blacke Masters race in AZ was he considered too extreme. Generic polling “Is either party too extreme? Which one?” Rs=39%, Ds=38%.

But Candidate Resumes is a likely factor in tight races.  17 close Senate and Gov races were single digit wins. All l17 Dems had held previous office from a statewide election or had been in state offices or Congress. Only 7 Rs had been. People expect experience in higher govt offices. Before Trump, only one  President was elected that did not hold a Senate, VP, or cabinet position.  That one exception is Lincoln who had, in fact been a congressman.

Moderate establishment candidates did poorly. This may be explained by the partisan nature of the voters these days.

More surprises? 74% are dissatisfied with both parties. 76% say we are on the wrong track. 52% “aren’t very confident” that their state elections are fair and accurate.  Rs got 39% of Hispanic voters and 14% of Af-Americans, equal to of higher than even in 2020. Rs won 7% margins in married men, married women, and single men, but lost single women by 37%. Ds won urbans by +17% and Rs won rural by +29% and suburbs by +6%.  The only guy who scored almost complete wins was DeSantis who won urbans and Hispanics by 18% and lost single women by only 1 point.

Bottom line seems to be that citizens are looking for genuine leaders who are up to the challenges present and coming, and not finding much of anyone.  Expect no party to hoist its flag for long if they can’t come up with these people.

What won't change

SOME THINGS WON’T CHANGE DESPITE THE ELECTION. 

Rs made hay out of the Inflation issue and crime issue, but frankly, what can a federal lawmaker do about crime? It’s a gang warfare and do idiot bail reforms. Police depantments have been defunded and officers let go.  Prosecutors are elected locally and they have been culprits in letting criminals walk.  And that will continue until people realize their problem and act on it in their area. 

            Likewise Ds made hay out of the abortion issue.  But realistically, what changes? Several states have no abortion clinics.  Even a national right to abortion won’t buy you one in those states.  Other states have numerous clinics and aren’t about to disallow abortions.  The Supremes have told everyone that Abortion Rights is not in the constitution and so it is a state’s issue.  Pass any sort of federal law about the right and it will be struck down by the Supremes. In real life practice, little changes with Dobbs. 

            Inflation won’t come under control for a number of years.  Bipartisan Congress passed $2T of relief in 2020. But then Biden added 3 bills of $1.9T,1.2T and .6T.  Plus the $.6T of normal gov’t deficit spending and another $1T from the Fed (remember they were still “tapering” purchase of bonds during 2021) The injection of $8T on top of money supply of $16T adds, over several years, almost 50% to the  amount of money in circulation.  That means roughly 50% inflation over a number of years. BUT that is true only if more stimulus isn’t added like Biden’s $500B debt forgiveness.  And then unions will strike wanting inflation added to their contracts in addition to the usual increases.  Now Congress can put their foot on the brake of spending as it occurs.

            Then too, prices go up, people cut back and that affects consumer spending which is 70% of the GDP.  This will bring Recession. All the talk of ‘soft landing” applies only to Fed raising interest to quell heated demand in normal times.  In Inflationary economies, we get stagflation—recession in the midst of rising prices. And what might tip off a recession soon?  Housing markets all around the world are crashing.  Prices are down 9% in Canada so far this year.  If a worldwide housing crunch takes place it will be like the one we had in USA 2007-2009.  Since the amount of buildings is 3 X the amount in stock markets, a housing crash is enormous, would draw USA in on it, and take a long recovery.

Meanwhile, smile about Oklahoma's R victories! 

What's wrong with Baseball

 World Serier final game summary.  Phils brought out the big bird, Schwarbler who hit a homer.  Desperato Alvarado pitched to Alvarez who hit it a mile and pitching all around was almost unhittable.  All runs come via home runs. Greatest mystery was if Dusty Baker uses the same toothpick all game long of it he goes for a new pick each inning. But I was happy to see the Strohs win.

            As a 70-year baseball fan, I must lament that baseball has become boring.  Batters work on homer hitting since that excites fans, makes the replays, and brings mega salaries.  Nobody bunts. Few stolen bases.  The squeeze play is so rare the broadcasters would have to look it up in the history books. Otherwise pitchers throwing hundred mile-per-hour fastballs rule.  Teams stock numerous relief pitchers so the pitch count doesn’t get too high for the starter.  Batters can’t hit very much.  When they do get a single, outfielders trot to retrieve the ball usually with no resolve to make a spectacular play.  The result is a game dominated by long at-bats as pitcher attempts strike-outs on junk pitches. Home runs make most of the scores.  It begins to look like a hockey game or soccer where you wait 3 or 4 hours to see a run and batting averages of .300 are rare. 

            They have tried all kinds of solutions and baseball is losing fans every year.  I’d move the pitcher back 6 or10 feet so that the batters would have a better chance to time those lightning pitches.  That would mean more hits and the increased spacing would encourage the ancient art of bunting once again. The pitch time would increase fractionally and give base stealers more of a chance.  With more hits, great fielding would become a premium more. Then move the fences back about 15 feet which may be as simple as fencing off the lower 4 rows of outfield binocular seating.  No home runs less than 400 feet. Then playing the outfield would be more of a game.  Use robotic ball-strike calling to get rid of the absolutely wrong pitch calls. Finally, we now have 12 of the entire 30 teams competing in playoffs. It means that one mediocre team can get hot and beat everybody. Which leaves fans wondering if there is any reason for playing a regular season. If that is the intent, then stop the regulation season at 154 games as of old, midway through September.  Have all playoff series be best of 7 games long, none of this 2-and-done stuff.  Baseball is always a game of probability and an extended series is needed to derive a champ.   

HOW Do DEMOCRATS SHOOT THEMSELVES IN THE FOOT ?

 

HOW DID DEMOCRATS SHOOT THEMSELVES IN THE FOOT SO BADLY WITH INFLATION, AFGHANISTAN, CRIME, ETC.? It boils down to the mistakes that happen to not-so intelligent people with grandiose ideas about themselves as leaders.  In short, ego.  Trace this back to the nobility of Europe.  During the Dark Age, there had to be some local strongmen with soldiers to defend against the onslaught of barbarians, from Goths to Norsemen.  Those strongmen didn’t work except to train in warfare and lorded it over the ordinary people. They eventually began to think of themselves as the smart people, above others, divinely installed to rule.  Noble vs. ignoble.  Ignoble peasants were considered animals while the nobles were supreme.  When the French Revolution occurred, these nobles and royalty were in terror that they would be next to be deposed and executed in their own countries.  So there arose a defense.  Yes, they were privileged but enlightened to use their wealth for good.  Don’t guillotine me, do it to that other guy who is an exploiter. It became known as nobilesse oblige, “obligation of the nobility”. It spread in USA to the plantation owners fearful of slave uprisings. (Slaves in USA were not completely downtrodden as in Caribbean and Brazil. Some were polite,could read and speech fluently—a horrifying prospect that they might get the upper hand.) To protect power, the owners were obligated to do a few good deeds and remind the underlings that they never had it so good. Liberalism/progressivism simply requires that one think of oneself as superior and worthy to run things (or enjoy freebees).  A lot of people dream of power. And so grandiose plans are constructed which other libs buy into as if they are their own, plans so wonderful that one becomes blind to the zillion inevitable pitfalls of life that sink even the best of intentions.  Hence the dumb bunny mistakes.  In a few months, add 30% to the supply of money that is in circulation and suddenly too much money is chasing too few goods.  Inflation.  Disdain the military men? Then they must be overruled in the Afghanistan exit plan. Debacle. Libs think their superiority will always win.  Lose an election? Don’t admit that maybe you miscalculated governance.  You just didn’t communicate  your superior ideas well. Someone opposes your plans?  They are not simply stupid or contrary-minded, they are vile and evil to oppose such wonderful plans. Ego.

            But this writer prefers the Party that considers ordinary people to be often rather bright, some capable of huge solutions he didn’t think about. Others are leaders, worker bees, kind servers, cheerleaders, all belonging to our team. Watch the returns on MSM after this year’s returns come in and see this phenom.   

Changes in political demographics

 

Why are more Af-Ams and Hispanics voting R? It’s important to note this because there is a general stupidity pitfall in  politics.  After one party or the other wins big, they think that all the public has changed their mind and agrees with them.  That just sets you up for set-back in the next election.  Rs sometimes think that a win immediately gives them the initiative to pass no abortions or change education.  But these are deeply divisive issues in which tweaking is often a better stategy than going fanatic.  While I grieve deeply over abortion and am angered and insulted over educrats and bad schools, almost half of the rest of the population that disagrees.

            Latinos and Af-Ams are working more in the last few Trump years. Here’s # of employed men per 100 women.

Group   1980    1990     2000     2010     2020

Caucas.  130     130       125       110       102

Asian       120    140       110       100       100

Hispanic  98      125       115       105       112

Af-Am      58      55         50         50         56

Note historic trend is decline but 2020 changed for Af and Latinos. Men mature wanting to be a skilled part of a team or The Best or to go where no man has ever gone. We want to Measure Up.  It’s part of our DNA.  When you work you get angry about somebody taking away your hard-won earnings and Rs stand for lower taxes, less regulations, smaller govt.  The turn of the 20^th century days of businesses exploiting voiceless workers once inflamed men. But this is no longer driving men to unionize with zeal like they did 100 years ago or even 50. So it is Af and Latino men who are doing the most switching of parties.

            Secondly, we intermarry.  In 1950 1% of Af-Ams and 10% of Asians intermarried.  Today it is 20% of Af-Ams and 50% of Asians.  Marry into a family of differing ideas and you start picking up some of their reasoning.

            Thirdly, Money.  62% of those who make $500K or more a year vote D.  65% of those who make less than $100K vote R. I first began to notice this “flip” of income demographics around 2000.  As a landlord who had about 20 apartments, I would talk to the tenants, many of whom make under $1500 per month and receive some forms of welfare and Medicaid.  Bottom line: almost all of them had bigger dreams and little sideline cash businesses to make enough to live better (trading comic books or baseball cards, driving as a sub taxi-cab driver, arts and crafts, etc.) And about half had very conservative attitudes, like the disabled woman who watched FOX non-stop, the farm wife who was living on minimum social security and Medicaid but still had rural values, the junk dealer looking for scrap iron and aluminum.  Many of the poor are minorities or lacking education yet they have aspirations for their kids.

            Fourth, they are employed by small biz.  Small business provides 70% of the new jobs and many can only afford low wages and the company truck is rusty.  You work closely with a boss and you empathize with his stuggles with bankers, code enforcers, health departments, and all the gov’t bureaucrats. 

            Fifth, Christianity.  If you feel like an oddball, or have experienced racism or are sadly poor, the promise of a close relationship with God that comes via Jesus Christ is a True Hope. Hispanics are all about faith, family and freedom and many church-going blacks are too.  46% of all Rs go to church regularly.  46% of all Ds never go to church. 63% of Americans are uneasy with social changes according to Gallup and Rs are the party of social issues. 83% of active Christians vote R. (By the way, 6-8% of media are church attenders)

            Certain issues resonate with minorities.  The border and illegals splits Hispanics.  Some see relatives and friends from the south coming in illegally but others are pissed by the cartels setting up in their community, gangs tempting their kids, and suffering of fellow Latinos along the Rio Grande having to put up with the onslaught. Latinos overwhelmingly favor good border policy and a reasonable immigration reform.Afro Americans are ticked over criminals in their midst, and the burning down of their neighbors businesses in black districts.  Crime is a very winning issue for Rs. Inflation is too which affects the poor disproportionately.

           Democrats hold strongly to a strategy of calling racism. 94% agreed with a statement by a major polling firm that "racism is built into our society," rather than "racism comes from racist individuals rather than society and institutions. Hispanics agreed 58% with the first and 36% with the second. 70% Hispanics agreed with "America is the greatest country in the world." while Dems only 19% agreed and 66% strongly disagreed. Hispanics cite Inflation/economy as their top issue by 61% and it is just a 5 percenter among Dems. Only 20% of Hispanics call themselves liberal but 35% say they are conservatives and 45% are moderates.

            Foreign policy? Farm policy?  Gun rights? Property Rights? States rights? Financial policy? All are good R issues but they affect growth in minority groups to a far lesser degree.  If we wish to grow the party, we need to realize that special emphasis is part of politics. But if the Democrats think they have a lock on minorities by there incessant racism charges, they got another thing coming.