He's done

I don’t see it.  I've been a campaign manager and I don’t see how Obama can win—aside from a stunning Romney problem like John Edwards.  Barack  won in 2008 by 53-46%.  Hmmm—same margin as my candidate did.  That’s not a comfortable margin.  If you lose 3% you’re tied.  All right, let’s run some numbers.  Afro-Am’s are 10% of the vote and they favored him by 95% last time.  He’s polling at 85% now.  There goes one percent.  Hispanics are just over 10% and they favored him by 75% last time.  They are 55% now.  That’s another 2%.  Young voters under 30 favored him 66% last time and make up an uncertain 10% of votes.  They are now at 48% approval and what if only half of them show up this time through discouragement.  There’s at least another 2%.  He’s down 12% with women who comprise 50% so that’s -6%.  Down 20% with elders over 55 and that’s 30% of the vote so that’s another minus 6%. 

Of course there is a lot of overlap in many categories, but you get the picture that he’s about 10 points down from last time and the yo-yoing between 42 and 48% approval demonstrates this.  Only Rasmussen does polls of likely voters (at this time of the campaign) and they have been showing numbers of about 45-45 all spring.  Those 10% undecideds will go ¾ to the challenger.  All those other polls where they show 49-48% are blue-sky guesses since they just interview people at random.  1 out of 3 of them won’t vote. 

Obummer has made bad strategic decisions in his campaign like his allegation that R’s hate women, refusing to approve Keystone, looking like he doesn’t want to work but golf while his wife travels to 5-star hotels on the taxpayer’s nickel.  The attacks on rich and Wall Street have made the public roll their eyes.  His EPA is, in the eyes of most people, somewhere between a bureaucratic concern and a Gestapo.  No issue he brings up seems to get traction.

Republicans made mistakes too.  They couldn’t find a true and articulate unanimous conservative.  They keep talking as if the recession is still going and it has been over for 3 years.  If they had said the truth, this is only the third jobless recovery in American history, which performs like the sick man of Europe, the charge would be sticking to Oblamer like a tar baby.  But I figure Mitt has the discipline to talk economy all the way to the election and all the diversionary tactics of BHO will not get him flustered.  Obama defends unpopular policies of Obamacare, refusal to drill or mine, and foreign policy appreasement. Stick a fork in him, he’s done.