Ground Hog Day Electability

Ground Hog Day.  Eat a pork tender sandwich or have a sausage, as my farming relatives in Iowa say.

Say, wasn’t Iowa interesting!  Media takes polls and then talks polls for months.  The big question is “Who will exceed expectations?”  Really?  Whose expectations?  We haven’t even voted yet.

            Finally they did vote and it was Cruz, Trump, Rubio.  I’m not a Trump fan so I am so glad he will have to do a new campaign stump speech to replace, “Have you seen the polls?  I’m ahead in all the polls by a lot. I’m pretty unstoppable.  Have you seen my poll numbers?”  A little substance perhaps now, Donald?

            Seriously, 3 contenders and here’s my take on electability. 

            Trump—not good.  He has extremely high negatives.  They are approximately 55% with all voters and over 60%  with registered likely voters.  Among Republicans, they asked who you absolutely wouldn’t vote for and about 30% say No Trump.  That compares to 10% for Cruz and Rubio. Iowans were asked who they had ruled out the day before the election and 51% said Trump while 36 and 39% said Rubio and Cruz respectively.  Like Jeb, he has low crossover appeal.  This looks insurmountable when you consider that the Republican base wants to talk issues and Donald just wants sound bites.  Nonetheless, he speaks out bombastically with frustration which makes for strong supporters.  He could win the nomination if he takes enough winner-takes-all states. 

            Rubio, I like.  Opposite Trump, he has lowest negatives of all candidates.  Articulate, good-looking, terrific demeanor, can talk conservatism well.  But he got himself twisted up in the Gang of 8 amnesty and it seems he needs time to live it down or at least have a better explanation like, “Dems got it so contorted into amnesty that I couldn’t support my own bill in the end.”  It is hard for a pol to admit wrong.  As a businessman, a Christian, a retiree, I could bore you all afternoon with my failures but a politician can rarely bring themselves to admit a flub.  Still, Rubio could win and would be a very difficult opponent for either Hill or Bernie or even Biden.  Smart, young, mainstream guy. 

            Cruz has the best chance despite what pundits say.  Think of how Romney got beat.  He didn’t turn on the conservative base who yawned instead of voting. Poor courage of convictions.   He was painted as a uncompassionate Richie banker by Dems.  Lost minorities, esp. Hispanics with only 27% support.  Trump will fare no better. Hispanics are very turned off by his deportation.   The Dems will use his wealth against him and find a few disgruntled employees whose wives died of cancer because he laid them off (or similar examples).  Dems gin up the single women vote with lack of compassion accusations and scares about R’s taking away benefits.  They gin up minority hate of white privilege.

            This won’t work with Cruz since he worked two jobs to get through Ivy League schools.  He’s no banker.  He’s not wealthy.  He’s not only Hispanic, he wears it on  his sleeve.  This might not mean anything if you aren’t Latino.  Since we had a Mex daughter, let me fill you in.  If you were born south of the border, government was crappy and society had crime.  Your family is your anchor.  When Cruz, in his victory speech introduced his mom, dad, wife and hugged them, he is showing off his anchor.  When he announced for Presidency and told about his parent’s separation and how he could have been another Hispanic kid with a single mom, I knew what he was saying.  Because the biggest heartbreak among Latinos is broken marriages.  Breaking the anchor.  Latin Americans are emotional, want to hear you say, I understand what you are going through. Thus Cruz gets 45% Hispanic vote in Texas where he is Cuban and they are mostly Mex. 

            Consistent Constitutioal Conservative?  Tell me, have you ever seen a politician go into Iowa and state opposition to ethanol subsidies?  And win the state?

            Rubio passes most of these tests too, except the consistency which he may improve.  Cruz may seem too preachy.  Trump flunks all these reasons.

            Cruz also has a strong economic plan and reforms of government where Rubio has tweaking and Trump has only his big image of a success in business and no published plans. 

            A couple other things.  Cruz has been lambasted as “nasty” or uncompromising.  But in his book he tells in detail how he wanted to use the power of the purse to negotiate with Dems and get the bailouts of insurance companies removed from Obamacare. McConnell agreed and then reneged. Cruz is well-liked among the minority of staunchly conservative Congressmen and staunchly conservative voters.   Rubio is called too young.  But he’s about the same age as Cruz and certainly older than JFK or TR with good background as Speaker of House in FL.  Romney is sometimes said to have been scuttled by evangelicals (numbers don’t support this very well, although some had this view).  If they thought Mormonism was so bad, what must they think about a guy like Trump, who says he has never asked God to forgive him because he isn’t doing anything wrong?

            We’ll see how this plays out.