what happened to the jobs

The answer to this in the news media is that they grew bored with that topic and moved on to ISIS and immigration.  The economic answer is, however, most fascinating. 

            37 recessions in US history and only 3 have had employment histories that are asymmetric.  That is, the usual recession has a drop in employment over some time period and then rebounds just as fast is it declined. A plot of employment vs. time is a symmetric trough.  Except  in 1931, 1937 and 2007. 

            Here’s what we see.  From Dec. 2007 to Dec. 2009 employment dropped by 11 million.  It is common for employment to lag GDP growth by about six months.  So when the recession ended and GDP turned around in July 2009, employment kept dropping until December.  Then there was a normal jobs rebound until March of 2010. Obamacare became law in March 2010.  Thereafter jobs have grown slowly and it was only last month, August 2014, that the number of jobs has recovered to where it was in Dec. 2007.  But now look at part-time vs. full time employment.  Part time unemployment normally grows a bit during a recession, while full time jobs die off.  Then as the economy recovers the reverse happens.  Full time jobs grow while part-timers decline. This happened normally from 2007 to March 2010.  Since then, the part-time market has not declined but flat-lined for over 4 years.  Full time employment has grown but still lacks 3 million to match were it was in 2007.  What’s going on?

            The economists are telling us that when Obamacare became law, the insurance premium projections of businesses rose dramatically and businessmen, quick to plan ahead, noticed.  With projections of several thousand dollars per employee cost increases, full time employment lagged and part time employment flat-lined.  Part time status is 35 hours per week but Obamacare calls you full time for insurance purposes if you work 30 hours per week.  Having to ante up several thousand dollars to cover part timers had a chilling effect.

            So the lack of growth in full time jobs, the flat-lining of part time employment and the utter dissolution of jobs which have 30-35 hours weekly has led the public to conclude that they don’t believe  the recession has ended at all—even though GDP has grown for 5+years. 72% of the public thinks we are still in recession.

            We haven’t seen this sort of government-threatening of businesses since the NRA and assorted alphabet soup programs of the New Deal.  And for the first recession in years, a “jobless recovery” of sorts.